MNI UK DATA SURVEY: UK Feb Inflation Report, Jan Labour Survey

By Jai Lakhani

     LONDON (MNI) - Kicking off a data-heavy week in the UK is the Inflation

data from the Office of National Statistics on Tuesday.  

     Analysts are pencilling an easing in inflation with MNI forecasts

suggesting a drop in CPI to 2.7% in February from 3.0% in January. On a m/m

basis, the measure is expected to pick up from -0.5% to 0.5% in February.

     Core CPI also has analysts pencilling in a slight drop, matching the 0.3pp

drop expected in CPI. After a prior y/y figure of 2.7%, analysts anticipate a

y/y figure of 2.4% in February.   

--------------------------------------------

                       Feb     Feb       Feb

                       CPI     CPI  Core CPI

                     % MoM   % YoY     % YoY

Date Out            20-Mar  20-Mar    20-Mar

Median                 0.5     2.7       2.4

Forecast High          0.6     2.9       2.7

Forecast Low           0.4     2.7       2.3

Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1       0.2

Count                    4       5         3

Prior                 -0.5     3.0       2.7

Commerzbank            0.5     2.7       N/A

Investec               0.4     2.7       2.3

Nomura                 0.6     2.8       N/A

Scotia                 0.4     2.7       2.4

Standard Chartered     N/A     2.9       2.7

     RPI also follows a similar theme to CPI, with the m/m figure expected to

increase from a prior January figure of -0.8% to an expected 0.7% in February.

Despite this, the y/y figure is expected to fall a fair amount from 4% in

January to 3.6% in February. 

----------------------------------

                       Feb     Feb

                       RPI     RPI

                     % MoM   % YoY

Date Out            20-Mar  20-Mar

Median                 0.7     3.6

Forecast High          0.9     3.8

Forecast Low           0.7     3.5

Standard Deviation     0.1     0.1

Count                    3       3

Prior                 -0.8     4.0

Investec               0.7     3.6

Nomura                 0.9     3.8

Scotia                 0.7     3.5

     Wednesday sees the release of the latest batch of labour market data. 

     In line with MNI's data analysis on wages picking up in 2018, MNI forecasts

show average total weekly earnings in January (as a 3m% y/y figure) up 0.2pp to

2.7% 3m y/y. Excluding bonuses, wage growth is expected to grow by a small

margin to 2.6%. 

-------------------------------------------------

                           Jan                Jan

                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly

                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus

                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY

Date Out                21-Mar             21-Mar

Median                     2.7                2.6

Forecast High              2.7                2.6

Forecast Low               2.6                2.5

Standard Deviation         0.1                0.1

Count                        4                  3

Prior                      2.5                2.5

Commerzbank                2.7                N/A

Investec                   2.7                N/A

Nomura                     2.6                2.6

Oxford Economics           2.6                2.6

Standard Chartered         N/A                2.5

     Meanwhile, January's  ILO Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged

from its prior 3m figure of 4.4% 

                       Wednesday

--------------------------------

                             Jan

                             ILO

                    Unemployment

                            rate

                            3m %

Date Out                  21-Mar

Median                       4.4

Forecast High                4.4

Forecast Low                 4.3

Standard Deviation           0.0

Count                          6

Prior                        4.4

Bayern                       N/A

Commerzbank                  4.4

Investec                     4.4

Nomura                       4.4

Nordea                       N/A

Oxford Economics             4.4

Scotia                       4.3

Standard Chartered           4.4

     Year-over-year growth in retail sales, excluding petrol, in February is

estimated to fall marginally from 1.5% in January to 1.3%. 

     Looking at total sales, month-on-month growth is pencilled in to increase

by 0.5 percentage points from 0.1% in January to 0.6% in February. 

----------------------------------------------

                             Feb           Feb

                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales

                    Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol

                           % MoM         % YoY

Date Out                  22-Mar        22-Mar

Median                       0.6           1.3

Forecast High                0.7           1.6

Forecast Low                 0.4           1.2

Standard Deviation           0.2           0.2

Count                          3             3

Prior                        0.1           1.5

Commerzbank                  0.6           N/A

Investec                     0.7           1.6

Nomura                       N/A           1.3

Oxford Economics             0.4           N/A

Standard Chartered           N/A           1.2

     Regarding Thursday's monetary policy decision, analysts were unanimous in

expecting the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee keeping Bank Rate

unchanged at 0.5% and the stock of gilts also unchanged at stg435 billion. 

     It appears much of the focus here will be on any change of language used in

the policy statement, as well as the vote breakdown, for any clues as to whether

we will see any tightening when the Bank next meets in May.     

                               Thursday             Thursday

------------------------------------------------------------

                                    Mar                  Mar

                                    BOE                  BOE

                    MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision

                            Bank Rate %   Gilt Purch Stg bln

Date Out                         22-Mar               22-Mar

Median                              0.5                435.0

Forecast High                       0.5                435.0

Forecast Low                        0.5                435.0

Standard Deviation                  0.0                  0.0

Count                                 6                    3

Prior                               0.5                435.0

Bayern                              0.5                  N/A

Investec                            0.5                435.0

Nomura                              0.5                435.0

Nordea                              0.5                  N/A

Oxford Economics                    0.5                435.0

Standard Chartered                  0.5                  N/A

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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