MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 26

MNI BRIEF: China, US Should Strengthen Dialogue, Cooperation

MNI BRIEF: SNB Framework Reform 'Playing With Fire' - Steiner

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1056 Fri; -4.56% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 613; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 105

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL APR INDEX 77.2

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Inflation and Labour Preview - January 2024 Release

UK DATA
  • Wage data is due on Tuesday and consensus expectations look for private sector AWE ex bonus to fall notably in the 3-months to November to 6.6%Y/Y.
  • The median of the previews that we have read look for a fall in headline CPI of 0.1ppt to 3.8% with core inflation 2 tenths lower at 4.9%Y/Y and services inflation 3 tenths lower at 6.0% (although the mean here is for 6.07%). This would be a considerable undershoot compared to the Bank of England’s November MPR forecasts which expected headline CPI at 4.58%Y/Y and services inflation at 6.86%Y/Y. Indeed, the undershoot for both if in line with expectations would be around 0.8ppt.
  • We had noted that it would be hard for markets to price in more than around 140bp of cuts for 2024 as a whole – and that seems to be the limit for the market at the moment. At the time of writing we are pricing around 132bp and (absent any surprises from Fed speakers or Bailey) think that we could challenge the 140bp level again this week on soft level. However, we would again see this as stretched positioning, and a good opportunity to fade more extreme pricing of cuts.
  • We also review notable sellside comments following the GDP report last week.
For the full document including summaries of sellside views for the labour market and inflation see the full PDF here.
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.