MNI BRIEF: Inflation Risks Now Shifted To Downside-BOE Ramsden

MNI: Goolsbee Says Stalled Inflation Means Wait Before Moving

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 19

MNI BRIEF: China Hog Market More Balanced In Q2 - Ministry

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI UK Inflation Insight: November 2023: Significant downside surprise

UK DATA
  • After a downside surprise to both headline CPI and services CPI a month ago (October data), the November inflation report repeated those surprises again, meaning that headline CPI surprised the BOE’s November MPR forecasts by 0.7ppt in November with services CPI 0.6ppt below the Bank’s forecast.
  • Some of the downside surprise can be attributed to potentially "temporary factors" but even if there is some scope for a bit of a rebound in December services CPI, it is unlikely to be anywhere near the magnitude of a 0.6ppt reversal to get us close to the BOE's November MPR forecast.
  • We discuss the main components that have driven the move.
  • We reiterate our view that it will be hard for markets to meaningfully price more than the 140bp of cuts currently priced in. However, we also think that there is a good chance that the Bank’s February communication potentially removes the tightening bias.
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.