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MNI UK Inflation Insight: November 2023: Significant downside surprise

UK DATA
  • After a downside surprise to both headline CPI and services CPI a month ago (October data), the November inflation report repeated those surprises again, meaning that headline CPI surprised the BOE’s November MPR forecasts by 0.7ppt in November with services CPI 0.6ppt below the Bank’s forecast.
  • Some of the downside surprise can be attributed to potentially "temporary factors" but even if there is some scope for a bit of a rebound in December services CPI, it is unlikely to be anywhere near the magnitude of a 0.6ppt reversal to get us close to the BOE's November MPR forecast.
  • We discuss the main components that have driven the move.
  • We reiterate our view that it will be hard for markets to meaningfully price more than the 140bp of cuts currently priced in. However, we also think that there is a good chance that the Bank’s February communication potentially removes the tightening bias.
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