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MNI UK Labour Market Preview

UK DATA
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  • Most analysts are split between either private sector regular AWE 5.9%Y/Y print in the 3-months to April or a 0.1ppt fall to 5.8%Y/Y while the total AWE ex-bonus is expected to either remain at 6.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to April or increase 1 or possibly 2 tenths to 6.1% or 6.2%.
  • Note that the BOE do not provide individual monthly labour market forecasts, but look for Q2 private regular AWE at 5.1%Y/Y.
  • The upcoming release will give us a first look at how the increase in the National Living Wage (which was effective from 1 April) impacted the data. The April CPI data in our view represented some upside risks to this print with higher-than-expected price rises in hotels, cafes, restaurants and food potentially being driven by higher labour costs.
  • With a first 25bp cut only fully priced by November, the bar for wage data to surprise to the upside and push back hikes even further seems relatively high. We therefore think that there could be a larger market reaction to a lower-than-expected increase in private sector regular AWE.
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  • Most analysts are split between either private sector regular AWE 5.9%Y/Y print in the 3-months to April or a 0.1ppt fall to 5.8%Y/Y while the total AWE ex-bonus is expected to either remain at 6.0%Y/Y in the 3-months to April or increase 1 or possibly 2 tenths to 6.1% or 6.2%.
  • Note that the BOE do not provide individual monthly labour market forecasts, but look for Q2 private regular AWE at 5.1%Y/Y.
  • The upcoming release will give us a first look at how the increase in the National Living Wage (which was effective from 1 April) impacted the data. The April CPI data in our view represented some upside risks to this print with higher-than-expected price rises in hotels, cafes, restaurants and food potentially being driven by higher labour costs.
  • With a first 25bp cut only fully priced by November, the bar for wage data to surprise to the upside and push back hikes even further seems relatively high. We therefore think that there could be a larger market reaction to a lower-than-expected increase in private sector regular AWE.
For the full document click here.