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UK DATA: MNI UK Labour Market Preview: January 2025 Release

UK DATA
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  • The importance of UK labour market data may have fallen a little for the MPC, but it is still incredibly important for the market, despite growth concerns having picked up recently and activity and PMI data increasingly watched.
  • The scope for further revisions make this month’s print even more unpredictable.
  • Rounded to 1dp, the majority (6/8) of analyst forecasts we have seen for private sector regular AWE look for a 5.8%Y/Y print in the 3months to November, up from 5.37%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of October. The other two forecasts we have seen look for 5.7%.
  • In terms of the “headline” whole economy AWE numbers, ex-bonus forecasts are generally 5.5%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (from 5.19%Y/Y in the 3-months to October) while the total (including bonus) whole economy AWE forecasts are split between 5.6-5.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (with one analyst looking for 5.5%).

For the full preview including summaries of a dozen sellside views click here.

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  • The importance of UK labour market data may have fallen a little for the MPC, but it is still incredibly important for the market, despite growth concerns having picked up recently and activity and PMI data increasingly watched.
  • The scope for further revisions make this month’s print even more unpredictable.
  • Rounded to 1dp, the majority (6/8) of analyst forecasts we have seen for private sector regular AWE look for a 5.8%Y/Y print in the 3months to November, up from 5.37%Y/Y in the 3-months to the end of October. The other two forecasts we have seen look for 5.7%.
  • In terms of the “headline” whole economy AWE numbers, ex-bonus forecasts are generally 5.5%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (from 5.19%Y/Y in the 3-months to October) while the total (including bonus) whole economy AWE forecasts are split between 5.6-5.7%Y/Y in the 3-months to November (with one analyst looking for 5.5%).

For the full preview including summaries of a dozen sellside views click here.