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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in October, a third month at 0.3 after two 0.16 readings at the start of summer. Our survey of analysts to 2.d.p suggests some mild upside skew.
- A health insurance reset adds to uncertainty in the initial reaction to the report, along with some previously large moves in the more familiar categories including a particularly sharp acceleration in OER last month.
- The supercore is seen moderating but to a still painful rate for the FOMC. It’s possible some of this strength is faded due to the health insurance reset but equally Chair Powell warning on not being misled by a few good months of data could see sensitivity to a strong print here.
- Further rate hikes are still seen with a high bar despite expectations rising post-Powell (to a cumulative 7bp of tightening over the next two meetings) before 80bp of cuts through 2024.
- The reaction in near-term meeting expectations could be dampened by the fact that there is still plenty of data to come including another payrolls and CPI round before the Dec 13 FOMC decision.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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