MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: Advance 2nd Qtr GDP Seen Up 4.5%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Second quarter GDP is expected to rise by 4.5% 

in the advance estimate after a 2.0% gain in the first quarter, with the 

key factors being stronger PCE growth, solid nonresidential fixed 

investment growth, and a narrower net export gap. The chain price index 

is expected to rise by 2.1% in the second quarter after a 2.2% gain in  

the first quarter. Comprehensive benchmark revisions will be included   

with the data. 

     Analysts underestimated advance GDP in the first quarter after an 

overestimate in the previous quarter, but after two revisions, the 

original forecast ended up exactly right. Missing data for the third 

month of the quarter, in this case June, is always a risk, though the 

advance estimates of trade and retail and wholesale inventories lessen 

that risk. Comprehensive revisions to the data and changes to 

methodology could also make forecasting the outcome less precise. 

                             Final    Final

                            Growth    Final   Median less

                             Rate:   Sales:  actual advance:

Forecast:            1Q-18     2.0      2.0   1Q-18   -0.3

 Median       4.5    4Q-17     2.9      3.4   4Q-17    0.4

 Range High   4.8    3Q-17     3.2      2.4   3Q-17   -0.3

 Range Low    3.7    2Q-17     3.1      2.9   2Q-17    0.1

                                                                            2Q avg/

                                                                            1Q avg

                                                                             % chg

                             Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18 Ann Rate

Indices:

  BLS Agg Hours               108.3   108.9   109.1   109.2   109.4   109.6   2.3

  Ind. Production             105.4   105.9   106.4   107.6   107.1   107.7   6.1

$ blns unless otherwise noted:

  Real PCE**                12053.3 12028.9 12100.9 12131.9 12130.5 12131.2   2.3

  Total Retail Sls            492.0   492.5   496.1   497.8   504.3   506.8   7.9

  Non-MV Retail Sls           391.0   392.6   394.2   395.6   401.3   402.9   7.7

  Mtr Veh Retail Sls          101.1   100.0   101.9   102.1   103.0   103.9   8.4

  Control Retail Sls          267.5   268.2   269.6   271.2   273.4   273.3   6.5

  Civ Cap Shipments            74.9    75.6    77.7    74.0    76.6    78.4   1.4

  Civ Cap Shipms ex Air        66.6    67.2    66.7    67.2    67.4    68.1   4.6

  Bus. Invs**                1915.0  1925.8  1923.7  1923.7  1930.0  1926.8   1.1

 Constr. Spending**          1276.3  1305.5  1293.1  1304.5  1309.5  1307.0   4.8

  Priv Residential Cons**     541.8   560.2   546.6   549.3   553.8   551.6   1.5

  Priv Nonresidential Cons    444.1   453.1   451.3   453.0   451.5   452.3   2.5

  Public Construction**       290.3   292.2   295.2   302.1   304.1   303.1  15.2

 Goods Gap (2012 $)**          83.8    85.4    78.2    77.5    75.3    76.4 -26.4

  Goods Exports (2012 $)**    143.5   146.2   150.8   150.6   153.2   151.9  14.6

  Goods Imports (2012 $)**    227.2   231.6   229.0   228.1   228.5   228.3  -1.7

**In cases where quarterly data are not complete,

the average of the first two months of the quarter is

substituted for the third month.

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]