MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: January Final Dmd PPI Seen +0.4%

     Final demand PPI is expected to rise 0.4% in January. Energy prices are

expected to rebound, while food prices are expected to rise modestly. Excluding

food and energy prices, PPI is forecast to rise 0.2%.

     Analysts sharply overestimated final demand PPI in December, as trade

services and food prices tumbled further and energy price were flat. The

remaining components did not help much, rising only 0.1% in December. The misses

in the last ten January releases are tilted toward low estimates, with only two

overestimates compared with six underestimates. For core PPI, there has been

only one overestimate, compared with seven underestimates. The data suggest an

upside surprise in a distinct possibility for the January data.

                                  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.3     0.4     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.4

Range High                           0.4     0.6     0.3     0.5     0.3     0.6

Range Low                            0.1     0.2     0.0     0.2     0.0     0.2

Actual result                        0.2     0.4     0.4     0.4    -0.1    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.1     0.0    -0.3    -0.1     0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison             Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                               0.4     0.3     0.1    -0.5    -0.2     0.3

Range High                           0.8     1.1     0.4    -0.3    -0.1     0.5

Range Low                            0.0    -0.1    -0.3    -0.6    -0.5     0.2

Actual result                        0.1     0.2     0.2    -0.8     0.1     0.6

vs median forecast                   0.3     0.1    -0.1     0.3    -0.3    -0.3

                                  Aug-17  Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

Core PPI Forecast:

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2

Range High                           0.2     0.3     0.2     0.2     0.2     0.5

Range Low                            0.0     0.1     0.1     0.0     0.1     0.1

Actual result                        0.1     0.4     0.4     0.3    -0.1    #N/A

vs median forecast                   0.1    -0.2    -0.2    -0.1     0.3    #N/A

Historical comparison:            Jan-12  Jan-13  Jan-14  Jan-15  Jan-16  Jan-17

Median                               0.2     0.2     0.2     0.1     0.1     0.2

Range High                           0.8     0.5     0.3     0.1     0.2     0.3

Range Low                            0.1     0.1     0.0     0.0     0.0     0.1

Actual result                        0.4     0.2     0.2    -0.1     0.4     0.4

less median forecast                -0.2     0.0     0.0     0.2    -0.3    -0.2

NOTE: From Jan. 2014

forward, forecast data are

for Final Demand PPI and

Core

                                          Sep-17  Oct-17  Nov-17  Dec-17  Jan-18

USDA Farm Prices Rec'd Index

(% chg)                                     -1.7    -5.2     4.2     0.8    #N/A

ISM Mfg Index Price Index                   71.5    68.5    65.5    69.0    72.7

ISM Nonmfg Index Price Index                65.9    61.5    60.1    59.9    61.9

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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