MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: June Industrial Prod Seen +0.5%>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Industrial production is expected to rise 0.5% 

in June after a surprise decline in May on a special factor--a fire at a 

truck supply plant. Factory payrolls rose by 36,000 in June, while auto 

production jobs rose by 12,000 and the factory workweek was rose to 40.9 

hours, up from 40.8 hours in May. The ISM production index rose to 62.3 

in the current month from 61.5 in the previous month. Utilities 

production is expected to flatten in the month after a further gain in  

the previous month, but with an upside risk due to warmer-than-usual 

weather. Mining production is expected to continue it's string of gain. 

Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 78.2% from 77.9% in May.    

     Analysts sharply overestimated industrial production in June 

following three straight underestimates, though a fire at a truck part 

supply plan accounted for much of the weak headline reading. There has 

been a trend of underestimates for June industrial production, with low 

misses in eight of the last 10 years, including the most recent three 

years. 

Industrial Production:     Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

Forecast:

 Median                       0.2     0.4     0.4     0.6     0.2     0.5

 High                         0.3     0.8     0.9     1.0     0.5     0.7

 Low                         -0.3     0.0     0.1     0.1    -0.6     0.4

Actual result                -0.1     1.1     0.5     0.7    -0.1    #N/A

 Median-Actual                0.3    -0.7    -0.1    -0.1     0.3    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17

 Median                       0.3     0.2     0.3     0.2     0.4     0.3

 High                         0.7     0.5     0.5     0.8     0.9     0.5

 Low                         -0.1    -0.2     0.1    -0.1     0.1     0.2

Actual result                 0.4     0.3     0.2     0.3     0.6     0.4

 Median-Actual               -0.1    -0.1     0.1    -0.1    -0.2    -0.1

Capacity Utilization:      Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

Forecast:

 Median                      78.0    77.8    77.9    78.4    78.0    78.2

 High                        78.4    78.1    78.2    78.7    78.2    78.4

 Low                         77.0    77.4    77.7    78.2    77.4    78.1

Actual result                77.5    78.1    78.0    78.0    77.9    #N/A

 Median-Actual                0.5    -0.3    -0.1     0.4     0.1    #N/A

Historical Comparison:     Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17

 Median                      79.2    77.7    79.3    78.2    75.2    76.8

 High                        79.4    78.0    79.4    78.3    75.4    76.9

 Low                         78.9    77.4    78.2    78.0    74.9    76.6

Actual result                78.9    77.8    79.1    78.4    75.4    76.6

 Median-Actual                0.3    -0.1     0.2    -0.2    -0.2     0.2

                           Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

NA-Made Vehicle Sales Ex.     9.9    10.0    10.2     9.9     9.9    10.3

Mfg Agg Hrs Index % chg      -0.1     1.0    -0.1     0.5    -0.3     0.4

Factory Jobs (000's)           20      31      21      28      19      36

 Auto Prod Jobs (000's)         0       4       0       1      -8      12

Mining Jobs (000's)             6       9       8       9       4       5

Levels:

  ISM Mfg PMI                59.1    60.8    59.3    57.3    58.7    60.2

  ISM Mfg Production         64.5    62.0    61.0    57.2    61.5    62.3

  Phila. Fed Index           22.2    25.8    22.3    23.2    34.4    19.9

  Empire State Index         17.7    13.1    22.5    15.8    20.1    25.0

  Chicago PMI                65.7    61.9    57.4    57.6    62.7    64.1

  Factory Workweek           40.7    41.0    40.9    41.0    40.8    40.9

  Factory Overtime            3.5     3.7     3.6     3.6     3.4     3.5

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]