MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: June Sales Seen +0.6% On Autos>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Retail sales are forecast to rise by 0.6% in 

June on the heels of a strong 0.8% gain in May and an upward revision to 

April. Not seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales accelerated 

modestly in June, while AAA reported that gasoline prices rose further 

in mid-June from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise 

only 0.3% excluding motor vehicles after a 0.9% surge in April, but 

better-than-normal weather in the month may have lifted spending at 

restaurants and purchases of summer clothing, so there is an upside 

risk. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated retail sales growth in May, as 

gains were seen virtually across the board, including a surprise 

increase in vehicle sales. Misses for past June data suggest a risk of 

an overestimate for both the overall and ex-motor vehicle measures, with 

high misses in nine of the last 10 years for the ex-motor vehicle 

figure. 

                         Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

Retail Sales forecast:

 Median                     0.2     0.4     0.3     0.3     0.4     0.6

 Range High                 0.3     0.5     0.4     0.5     0.6     0.8

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.1     0.3     0.2     0.0     0.5

Actual result              -0.3    -0.1     0.6     0.3     0.8    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.5     0.5    -0.3     0.0    -0.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17

 Median                     0.1     0.9     0.6     0.2     0.0     0.1

 Range High                 0.4     1.2     1.1     0.6     0.3     0.2

 Range Low                 -0.1     0.6     0.5     0.0    -0.5     0.0

Actual result              -0.5     0.4     0.2    -0.3     0.6    -0.2

 Median-Actual              0.6     0.5     0.4     0.5    -0.6     0.3

                         Jan-18  Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

Retail ex-autos Forecast:

 Median                     0.5     0.5     0.1     0.5     0.5     0.3

 Range High                 0.8     0.7     0.4     0.7     0.6     0.5

 Range Low                  0.0     0.3     0.0     0.4     0.2     0.2

Actual result:              0.0     0.2     0.2     0.3     0.9    #N/A

 Median-Actual              0.5     0.3    -0.1     0.2    -0.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Jun-12  Jun-13  Jun-14  Jun-15  Jun-16  Jun-17

 Median                     0.0     0.6     0.6     0.5     0.4     0.2

 Range High                 0.3     0.9     0.8     0.9     0.6     0.3

 Range Low                 -0.2     0.3     0.4     0.3     0.2     0.2

Actual result              -0.4     0.0     0.4    -0.1     0.7    -0.2

 Median-Actual              0.4     0.6     0.2     0.6    -0.3     0.4

                                 Feb-18  Mar-18  Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18

NA-Made Car Sales, mln units, sa    3.3     3.2     3.0     3.0     3.1

NA-MadeTruck Sales, mln units, s    6.7     7.0     6.9     6.9     7.2

*Vehicle Sales Do Not Include GM

AAA gasoline prices ($/gal)       2.570   2.523   2.658   2.813   2.915

 mo/mo pct change                 #N/A     -1.8     5.4     5.8     3.6

Consumer confidence               130.0   127.0   125.6   128.8   126.4

Conf Bd Buying Plans Next 6 mo:*

 Automobile                        12.9    11.5    12.6    12.1    10.7

 Home                               6.4     6.0     6.9     5.5     5.9

 Major appliance                   52.1    49.5    54.3    50.8    48.0

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* Respondents answering "yes"

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]