MNI: US Data Forecast Focus: September ISM Mfg Seen At 60.0>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to 

decline to a reading of 60.0 in September after jumping to 61.3 in 

August. Regional conditions data have been mixed in the direction of 

monthly movement, but generally point to continued strong growth. 

Additionally, the flash Markit manufacturing index rose to 55.6 from 

54.7. 

     Analysts sharply underestimated the headline ISM index in August 

following an overestimate in July. There have been underestimates in six 

of the last eight September releases, so another upside surprise is 

possible. 

Forecast:                Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

 Median                    58.4    58.9    58.2    59.5    57.9    60.0

 Range High                59.5    60.0    60.0    59.7    58.0    60.5

 Range Low                 58.0    56.8    58.0    58.0    57.0    58.0

Actual result              57.3    58.7    60.2    58.1    61.3    #N/A

 Median-Actual              1.1     0.2    -2.0     1.4    -3.4    #N/A

Historical comparison:   Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16  Sep-17

 Median                    49.7    55.0    58.1    50.6    49.8    58.0

 Range High                50.6    57.2    59.0    53.5    50.6    59.0

 Range Low                 49.0    53.0    57.5    49.0    48.5    57.0

Actual result              51.5    56.2    56.6    50.2    51.5    60.8

 Median-Actual             -1.8    -1.2     1.5     0.4    -1.7    -2.8

                         Apr-18  May-18  Jun-18  Jul-18  Aug-18  Sep-18

 MNI Chicago               57.6    62.7    64.1    65.5    63.6    60.4

 Phila. Fed Index          23.2    34.4    19.9    25.7    11.9    22.9

 Empire State Index        15.8    20.1    25.0    22.6    25.6    19.0

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email:kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]