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MNI US Inflation Insight, Apr'23: Moderating But Some Way To Go

EXEUCTIVE SUMMARY

  • Core CPI inflation was broadly as expected in March, easing from 0.45% to 0.385% M/M for the fourth month with a 0.4% reading to 1 decimal place, i.e. stubbornly high.
  • The main downside surprise came from a sharp slowing in rents, whilst non-housing core services saw only varying degrees of moderation but perhaps of some comfort were propped up by volatile items that could reverse ahead.
  • Dispersion measures also generally retreated somewhat although early core PCE estimates still point to a monthly acceleration.
  • The market still priced a circa 18bp hike for the May 3 FOMC after the release. Still to come, Q1 GDP (Apr 27), the March PCE deflator (Apr 28) and ECI (Apr 28) along with the SLOOS update on credit conditions.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USInflationInsightApr2023.pdf

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