Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Core CPI inflation came in marginally stronger than expected in December with 0.31% M/M, seeing as consensus was for a rounded 0.3% but with a clear skew to a ‘low’ 0.3%.
- There weren’t any particularly large drivers for the surprise compared to recent months.
- The report offers a worrying stalling in the moderation in CPI data although core PCE has been running lower than core CPI in recent months, and we suspect it should have continued to do so in December barring any PPI surprises today.
- The fading of volatility in the categories seen through Sep-Nov comes as inflation struggles in the “last mile” of its return all the way to target, and shouldn’t be particularly comforting for the Fed.
- With a relatively dovish FOMC member in Williams having already pushed back on March cut pricing after the December FOMC, we expect the hawks and possibly Chair Powell to lean into those points ahead, even if Cleveland Fed’s Mester didn’t jump at the chance in post-CPI commentary.
- The market briefly lowered the odds of a March FOMC cut although quickly reversed that and has about 70% priced. The 24 analysts reviewed below for the most part see a later start to cuts.
PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT ATTACHED HERE:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok