Highlights:
- Trump-Putin call set for 1300GMT/0900ET, territory, arms and aid all up for discussion
- ECB's Rehn tells MNI that he leans toward April rate cut
- Germany's fiscal vote expected to pass smoothly, despite pockets of internal opposition
US TSYS: Marginally Twist Steeper, Potential Spillover Factors Watched
- Treasuries are back to little changed on the day after a modest rolling over in equities, leaving benchmark tenors within +/-1bp of yesterday’s close.
- The Kremlin has said Putin and Trump are due to speak between 0900-1100ET today and we earlier saw Bloomberg report that Putin wants all arms to Ukraine to be halted as part of a ceasefire agreement.
- Today sees a string of second tier US data releases plus potential spillover from Canada CPI at 0830ET and the German Bundestag vote on fiscal reform also expected to start from ~0830ET (with Treasuries currently outperforming EGBs after yesterday's underperformance).
- TYM5 trades at 110-20+ (+ 01) on more limited cumulative volumes of 275k having remained within yesterday’s range throughout.
- Support at 110-12+ (Mar 6/13 low) remains intact whilst the trend condition remains bullish with resistance at 111-25 (Mar 11 high).
- Data: Import prices Feb (0830ET), Housing starts/building permits Feb (0830ET), NY Fed services Mar (0830ET), IP/Cap util Feb (0915ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $13B 20Y Bond reopen - 912810UJ5 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill auctions (1130ET)
STIR: Next Fed Cut Increasingly Seen In July Rather Than June
- Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s push higher with help from a retail sales report that can be best described as not showing particular weakness rather than an outright strong report.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp for tomorrow, 6bp May, 19.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 61bp Dec.
- It leaves the rate path at the hawkish end of the past two weeks, with 61bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs briefly almost 90bp earlier last week, but it’s still dovish compared to the 50bp pencilled in back in the December SEP.
- We expect this 50bp of cuts to be kept with the new SEP due tomorrow, something a majority of analysts expect, but those who do look for a change unusually look for moves in the opposite direction.
- See the full MNI Fed Preview here.
GERMANY: Timings For Today's Fiscal Reform Debate & Voting, Passage Expected
There are suggestions that the political parties will conduct test votes to gauge support for the fiscal reform ahead of today’s Bundestag gathering. The straw polls/test votes are seemingly scheduled for 09:00 CET/08:00 GMT and could generate headlines.
- The Bundestag session will get underway at 10:00 CET/09:00 GMT, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT.
- A roll call-vote will then follow the debate (some have suggested this could start around 13:30 CET/12:30 GMT), with the session scheduled to conclude at 15:05 CET/14:05 GMT.
- Chancellor-in-waiting Merz has stated that only a small handful of no votes will come from the CDU-CSU, while dissenters and absentees from the Greens & SPD are expected to be in the low single digits.
- A reminder that the 3 parties have a buffer of 31 votes when it comes to passing the package.
- While odds of a rejection of the amendments are not 0, base cases and market pricing continue to lean heavily towards the reform passing through the Bundestag.
- It then needs to pass through the Bundesrat before the new government sits on 25 March.
SECURITY: Trump-Putin Call Expected Between 09:00ET And 11:00ET
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are today scheduled to hold their first call since Ukraine accepted the terms of a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov told reporters this morning the call will take place between 09:00 ET/13:00 GMT and 11:00 ET/15:00 GMT.
- Peskov said the leaders would talk “as long as they consider necessary,” noting that there is a “certain understanding” but also a “large number of questions to discuss”, per Reuters.
- Trump said over the weekend: “We will be talking about land. We will be talking about power plants,” adding that negotiators had already discussed "dividing up certain assets."
- Trump yesterday expressed optimism that a deal could be struck, again emphasising Ukraine’s weak battlefield position (“They're captured, essentially, they're surrounded by Russian soldiers") raising concern among Ukraine's backers that Trump will endorse a deal that favours Moscow's conditions. Some experts suggested the deal could amount to an effective surrender that Kyiv may be unable to accept.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Trump's characterisation of the conflict but analysts agree that Kyiv has lost control of roughly 500 sq/kms of territory in Russia’s Kursk region that Ukraine had hoped to use as a bargaining chip.
- Zelenskyy also accused Russia of obfuscating the deal: “Now, almost a week later, it’s clear to everyone in the world... that it is Putin who continues to drag out this war,”
- Newswires are expected to report confirmation of the call when it begins, with the first official statement likely to come via Trump’s Truth Social account.
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday “more than 30” countries have expressed interest in a so-called ‘coalition of the willing’ peacekeeping force to police a ceasefire, should Russia agree to the framework. Military representatives of the group will meet on Thursday.
US TSY FUTURES: Bias Towards Cover During Monday's Twist Flattening
OI data points to a mix of positioning swings during yesterday’s twist flattening of the curve, with net long cover (TU & FV), short setting (TY), short cover (UXY & US) & long setting (WN).
- Cover was more prominent than fresh position setting.
| 17-Mar-25 | 14-Mar-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 3,820,377 | 3,876,496 | -56,119 | -2,193,273 |
FV | 6,287,715 | 6,345,421 | -57,706 | -2,517,925 |
TY | 4,806,012 | 4,789,614 | +16,398 | +1,053,502 |
UXY | 2,266,760 | 2,269,424 | -2,664 | -237,175 |
US | 1,777,455 | 1,777,979 | -524 | -68,359 |
WN | 1,777,929 | 1,776,779 | +1,150 | +224,652 |
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| Total | -99,465 | -3,738,578 |
STIR: Short Setting Most Prominent During Monday Downtick In SOFR Futures
OI data suggests that net short setting was most prominent during yesterday’s downtick in SOFR futures, with the most concentrated exception to the rule coming via net long cover in SFRU6-Z6.
| 17-Mar-25 | 14-Mar-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,065,129 | 1,057,000 | +8,129 | Whites | +46,235 |
SFRH5 | 1,238,894 | 1,229,236 | +9,658 | Reds | +22,815 |
SFRM5 | 1,275,445 | 1,245,813 | +29,632 | Greens | -30,624 |
SFRU5 | 925,022 | 926,206 | -1,184 | Blues | +25,488 |
SFRZ5 | 1,070,490 | 1,065,191 | +5,299 |
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SFRH6 | 659,996 | 652,553 | +7,443 |
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SFRM6 | 650,041 | 632,647 | +17,394 |
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SFRU6 | 600,790 | 608,111 | -7,321 |
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SFRZ6 | 781,275 | 806,257 | -24,982 |
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SFRH7 | 504,246 | 502,113 | +2,133 |
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SFRM7 | 469,010 | 472,040 | -3,030 |
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SFRU7 | 299,599 | 304,344 | -4,745 |
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SFRZ7 | 414,050 | 402,894 | +11,156 |
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SFRH8 | 217,346 | 208,217 | +9,129 |
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SFRM8 | 183,666 | 178,332 | +5,334 |
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SFRU8 | 131,072 | 131,203 | -131 |
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ECB: Rehn Leans Towards April Cut Unless Data Indicates Otherwise
Q: Do you agree with De Guindos’ comments in an interview with the Sunday Times. How exactly do you feel about current interest rates here, with a view to restrictive language?
A: I would very much agree with De Guindos. In the US, the impact on inflation is likely to be more significant because the consumer pays for tariffs at the end of the day. In the Eurozone, the predominant impact is the negative impact on growth with to some extent an inflation dampening effect. The overall net impact is difficult to judge ex ante though.
On the Bank of Finland study and comparisons with private figures, our figure gives a fairly high figure and it’s typical of macroeconomic studies across the board. Current tariff coverage is 5-6% of EU exports to US so its substantially smaller than what we assumed.
On “meaningfully less restrictive”, it’s useful to say that the financing conditions have seen some easing. Look at the growth and level of loans to businesses and households but we’re starting from a relatively low level and the change is still relatively small. I would still quality conditions as tight. As things look now, even compared to our early March meeting, some of the downside risks will likely materialise (referring especially to Trump tariffs on EU steel & aluminium). Meanwhile, the expect increase in defence spending in some cases increased but the strongest effect will likely have an impact in the medium term. On the other hand, inflation risks are more balanced. My tentative conclusion based on recent data and forward looking prospects indicate that to reach our goal of 2% inflation the right reaction should be to cut but if data indicates otherwise then we should pause.
An earlier question on Rehn's retrospective reflection of monetary policy and what has been learned over the past year.
Rehn: I have a European standpoint when deciding on ECB policy but the country I understand best is Finland. We feel the tightening of monetary policy very quickly in Finland with variable rates but are also seeing relief from easier policy now. A year ago, we could see the tightening effect more concretely in Finland than in many other countries. In spring last year I was relatively confident in the disinflationary path and it wasn’t difficult to support the subsequent rate cut decisions.
FOREX: Euro Optimism Prevailing as German Fiscal Vote Beckons
- The noted European equity strength has also been underpinning single currency outperformance this morning, as EURUSD notably printed a fresh recovery high of 1.0955 ahead of the German fiscal vote this morning. Spot rising above the bull trigger at 1.0947 strengthens the current uptrend and signals scope for a move towards pivot resistance at 1.10 and a more notable cluster of medium-term resistance around the 1.12 mark.
- Another standout is EURJPY with a 0.65% session gain at typing. Both legs of the trade have been working in tandem as the European risk-positive sentiment also weighs on the Yen. Sustained clearance of initial resistance at 164.08 should pave the way for a move to 164.90, the Dec 30 high.
- Recall that the Bundestag session is underway, having started at 10:00 CET/09:00 GMT, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT.
FOREX: EUR/USD Makes Light Work of Bull Trigger
- EUR/USD made light work of yesterday's highs in early trade, rallying through 1.0930 with little difficulty and tripping the bull trigger in the process. Price action this morning was intially driven by USD weakness, but the looming debate in the 'old' Bundestag over the debt brake reform is due, and markets are building a successful passage of the legislation into the price.
- Reports in German press suggest there is sufficient wiggle room among lawmakers to secure a passage of the bill even in the case of a series of a no votes among both core lawmakers and the Greens - helping EUR outperform most others into the US crossover.
- The Trump-Putin call is set for 1300GMT/0800ET, at which the leaders are expected to discuss, in detail, the specifics of a Ukraine ceasefire, including settlement terms. Unexpected progress today could be seen as risk positive, posing further upside risk to EUR/JPY, which has helped pressure JPY to the bottom of the G10 table so far Tuesday.
- US housing starts and Canadian inflation data are the calendar highlights ahead of the industrial production release. The Fed remain inside the pre-decision media blackout period.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar18 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0745-55(E2.3bln), $1.0900-10(E678mln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.00($1.3bln), Y148.50($1.4bln), Y149.00($1.2bln), Y150.00($1.5bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6320-30($1.5bln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.2900($890mln)
EQUITIES: Recent Cycle Lows in E-Mini S&P Reinforces Bearish Conditions
- Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from their recent lows. The M/T trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5319.81. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement towards 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle.
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are considered corrective and the bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5967.23, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES: Latest Recovery in WTI Futures Appears Corrective for Now
- A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.77, 50-day EMA.
- A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and this week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current bullish condition. The yellow metal has delivered another all-time high and breached the psychological $3000.0 handle. Bulls have their sights on 3034.51 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at $2832.7, Feb 28 low.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 18/03/2025 | - |  US | FOMC Meetings with S.E.P. | |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | CPI |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 18/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 18/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 19/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** |  JP | Trade |
| 19/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 19/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * |  GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19/03/2025 | 0300/1200 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 19/03/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 19/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  EU | HICP (f) |
| 19/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB de Guindos In Madrid | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB Elderson At European Financials Conference | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 19/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Statement |
| 19/03/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 20/03/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | GDP |