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MNI US Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Across the Atlantic proceedings kick off with a slew of
releases at 1230GMT. The Consumer Price Index will be released, the CPI is
expected to rise 0.6% in September following a 0.4% energy-related rise in
August. Analysts expect energy prices to move even higher after August's 2.8%
surge, as the hurricanes impact, particularly on gasoline, continued. The core
CPI is forecast to rise 0.2% for a second straight month.
     Also at 1230GMT are US Retail Sales. Analysts forecast to rebound by 1.9%
in September, due to both a strong recovery in vehicle sales and
hurricane-related increase in gasoline prices, as AAA reported that gasoline
prices rose solidly in mid-September from one month earlier. Retail sales are
expected to rise 0.9% excluding motor vehicles after August's modest 0.2% gain,
owing mostly to the gasoline jump and to building materials sales after the
     Alongside these data at 1230GMT markets will hear from Boston Federal
Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren who will give opening remarks at the
Boston Fed's 61st Economic Conference "Are Rules Made to be Broken? Discretion
and Monetary Policy," and US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin is
scheduled to speak at 2017 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington.
     At 1400GMT the US release Business Inventories data, the headline figure is
expected to rise 0.7% in August. Factory inventories were already reported as up
0.4% in the month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.9% and the advance report
pointed to a 0.7% gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI
calculation looks for a 0.7% increase for business inventories, in line with the
median forecast. As for sales, factory shipments were up 0.5% and wholesale
sales surged by 1.7%, while retail trade sales fell 0.3% in the advance retail
sales report. An MNI calculation looks for a 0.7% rise in business sales,
barring a large revision to the retail trade sales number.
     Also at 1400GMT is the preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment Index,
analysts expect the index rise modestly to a reading of 95.5 in early-October
from 95.1 in September, as the impact of the hurricanes appears to be smaller
than previously expected.
     At 1415GMT ECB Executive Board member Vitor Constancio will participate in
panel session at conference "The Quest for Normality in an uncertain World", in
Washington, D.C.
     Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans is to participate in a
moderated discussion at the 7th Annual Wisconsin Summit on Financial Literacy in
Green Bay, Wisconsin, with audience and media Q&A at 1425GMT.
     At 1500GMT the St Louis Fed will release their latest update of their GDP
Nowcast, followed swiftly by the New York Fed equivalent measure at 1515GMT.
     Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan is to participate in a
moderated Q&A session at 2017 CFA Institute's Fixed Income Management Conference
in Boston, with audience and media Q&A at 1530GMT.
     Yet another Fed speaker scheduled for 1700GMT at the Boston Fed Economic
Conference, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will deliver keynote address
at 1700GMT.
     Former Federal Reserve Governor Randall Kroszner is to speak on "Global
Monetary Policy: The $13 Trillion Challenge" at the 2017 IIF Annual Membership
Meeting, in Washington at 1810GMT, while at 2030GMT Norges Bank Governor Ostein
Olsen will speak at an investor seminar in Washington.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email:

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