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MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq
US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Key 117-280/117-272 Gives Way, 117-180/117-170 Next
*RES 4: 118-132 Sep 13 high
*RES 3: 118-060 Sep 13 low, now resistance
*RES 2: 118-010 Sep 19 high
*RES 1: 117-280 Sep 19 low, now resistance
*PRICE: 117-220 @1015GMT
*SUP 1: 117-170/180 Jul 25 low, 76.4% Fibo of 117-035/119-015
*SUP 2: 117-132/147 Jul 6 low, 61.8% Fibo of 116-155/119-015
*SUP 3: 117-020 76.4% Fibo of 116-155/119-015
*SUP 4: 116-305 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The fall continues, moving below the key 117-280/117-272 area on
Wednesday. The decline now extends towards the next region of importance from
between 117-180/117-170. Has become oversold in the near term but resistance now
from that 117-280 level and then yesterday's 118-010 high, now become the
stumbling block to any successful recovery attempts. Lose 117-170 and look to
117-147/117-132 next.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Fresh Fall Sees 125-175/125-155 As Next Support
*RES 4: 126-250 Sep 13 high
*RES 3: 126-180 Sep 14-15 highs
*RES 2: 126-055/060 Sep 20 high, broken support line
*RES 1: 125-300 Sep 19 low, now resistance
*PRICE: 125-210 @1026GMT
*SUP 1: 125-170/175 Sep 20, Aug 8 lows
*SUP 2: 125-155 Jul 25, Jul 26 lows
*SUP 3: 125-055 50% Fibo of 122-145/127-285
*SUP 4: 125-035 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Broke below the base of the 9 week bull channel last week, and now
clearly below the 6 month rising support line, at 126-060 by time today. Lost
further support from 125-240/125-215 on Wednesday, now leaving the
125-175/125-155 region to deal with immediate pressure. In the meantime, look to
125-300 and then that broken support line at 126-060/126-180 for resistance.
Back above the latter now needed for any successful recovery hopes.
US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 153-16/153-05 Next Area Of Support As Fall Continues
*RES 4: 156-02 Sep 12 high
*RES 3: 155-15 Sep 15 high
*RES 2: 155-00 Sep 18 high
*RES 1: 154-12/18 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: 153-25 @1035GMT
*SUP 1: 153-14/16 1% volatility band, Sep 20 low
*SUP 2: 153-05 76.4% Fibo of 151-18/158-09
*SUP 3: 152-03 Jul 27, Jul 28 lows
*SUP 4: 151-29 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the the loss of both 156-07 support and the rising
support line from the late July lows. This followed by the key 154-30 level on
Thursday. Yesterday we lost the next important level from 154-04, the 61.8% Fibo
retrace level. This now leaves 153-16/153-14 as the near term protection against
a further 153-05 fall. In the meantime, resistance falls to 154-12/154-18,
presently require a move back above 155-00 however, to ease pressure.
     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Six Month Rising Support Line Break Targets
98.495
*RES 4: 98.635 Sep 8 high
*RES 3: 98.600/610 Aug 29 high, Sep 8 low
*RES 2: 98.580 Broken 6 month support line
*RES 1: 98.540/545 Sep 14 low, Sep 20 high
*PRICE: 98.510 @1053GMT
*SUP 1: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 2: 98.470 Apr 24 low
*SUP 3: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*SUP 4: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655
*COMMENTARY* Failed to take advantage of the break above 98.590/98.600 earlier
in the month, a high of 98.635 before giving up ground again. This culminated in
a drop below the 6 month rising support line last Thursday. This suggests that
there is initially scope for a return towards the Jul 6 low at 98.495. In the
interim, nearest resistance comes from 98.540-98.545 and then the broken support
line at 98.580. Below 98.495 and 98.455 is next attraction.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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