MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 118-010/118-017 Break Would Aid Recovery Efforts

*RES 4: 118-192 Sep 10 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 118-132 Sep 13 high

*RES 2: 118-060 Sep 13 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 118-010/017 Sep 19 high, broken 6 month support line

*PRICE: 117-270 @0800GMT

*SUP 1: 117-212 Sep 25 low 

*SUP 2: 117-170/180 Jul 25 low, 76.4% Fibo of 117-035/119-015

*SUP 3: 117-132/147 Jul 6 low, 61.8% Fibo of 116-155/119-015

*SUP 4: 117-020 76.4% Fibo of 116-155/119-015

*COMMENTARY* The fall continued last week, moving below the key 117-280/117-272

area on Wednesday. The decline then extended towards the next region of

importance from between 117-180/117-170. Has become oversold in the near term

and resistance from that 117-280 level has now been overcome. This leaves last

Wednesday's 118-010 high and the broken 6 month support line at 118-017, as the

stumbling block to any successful recovery attempts.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 126-055/126-085 The Bar To Continued Recovery Hopes

*RES 4: 126-250 Sep 13 high

*RES 3: 126-180 Sep 14-15 highs

*RES 2: 126-085 Broken 6 month support line

*RES 1: 126-055 Sep 20 high

*PRICE: 125-320 @0803GMT

*SUP 1: 125-170/175 Sep 20, Aug 8 lows

*SUP 2: 125-155 Jul 25, Jul 26 lows

*SUP 3: 125-055 50% Fibo of 122-145/127-285

*SUP 4: 124-250 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Broke below the base of the 9 week bull channel earlier this month

and then clearly below the 6 month rising support line, at 126-085 by time

today. Lost further support from 125-240/125-215 last Wednesday, leaving the

125-175/125-155 region to deal with immediate pressure. In the meantime, look to

126-055 and then that broken support line at 126-085 for resistance. Back above

here would assist with further 126-180/126-250 recovery hopes.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 155-04/155-15 Break Would Increase Recovery Chances

*RES 4: 156-19 Sep 10 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 156-02 Sep 12 high

*RES 2: 155-15 Sep 15 high

*RES 1: 155-04 Sep 25 high

*PRICE: 154-26 @0811GMT

*SUP 1: 154-00/02 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 153-16 Sep 20 low

*SUP 3: 153-00/05 1% vol band, 76.4% Fibo of 151-18/158-09

*SUP 4: 152-03 Jul 27, Jul 28 lows

*COMMENTARY* This month saw the the loss of both 156-07 support and the rising

support line from the late July lows. This then followed by a drop below the key

154-30 level and then last Wednesday we lost 154-04, the 61.8% Fibo retrace

level. This now leaves 153-16 as the near term protection against a further

153-05 fall. In the meantime, the move back above 155-00 is an initial positive,

through 155-15 would assist further.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (Z17) Key 98.495 Support Surviving Near Term Pressure

*RES 4: 98.635 Sep 8 high

*RES 3: 98.600/610 Aug 29 high, Sep 8 low

*RES 2: 98.585 Broken 6 month support line

*RES 1: 98.540/545 Sep 14 low, Sep 20 high

*PRICE: 98.515 @0814GMT

*SUP 1: 98.495 Jul 6 low, 50% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 2: 98.470 Apr 24 low

*SUP 3: 98.455 61.8% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*SUP 4: 98.410 76.4% Fibo of 98.335-98.655

*COMMENTARY* Failed to take advantage of the break above 98.590/98.600 earlier

in the month, a high of 98.635 before giving up ground again. This culminated in

a drop below the 6 month rising support line, which then gave the scope for a

return towards the Jul 6 low at 98.495. In the interim, nearest resistance comes

from 98.540-98.545 and then the broken support line at 98.585. Below 98.495 and

98.455 is next attraction.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]