MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Still Finding Support Ahead Of 61.8% Fibo Level 

*RES 4: 115-270 Dec 26 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 115-222 Jan 11 high

*RES 2: 115-200 Jan 16 high

*RES 1: 115-095/117 Hourly resistance, Jan 12 low

*PRICE: 115-032 @1124GMT

*SUP 1: 114-310/320 Jan 25, Jan 22 lows

*SUP 2: 114-265 9 week bear channel base projection

*SUP 3: 114-252 61.8% Fibo of 108-152/124-320

*SUP 4: 114-215 3 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* The fall has continued this week, posting a low at 114-310, as we

make our way towards the first of two channel base projections, the 9 week at

114-265. The second coming in at the slightly lower 114-215 level, just below

the next key Fibo retrace level, the 61.8% at 114-252. In the interim,

resistance from 115-095/115-117 is now the first obstacle to cross,

115-200/115-222 higher.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Still Holding Above 8 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 123-125 Dec 21 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 123-050/065 Jan 11, Jan 16 highs

*RES 2: 122-285/300 Congestion area Jan 10-16

*RES 1: 122-175/200 Jan 24 high, Jan 12 low 

*PRICE: 122-090 @1133GMT

*SUP 1: 121-310 Jan 25 low

*SUP 2: 121-250/260 76.4% of 117-180/135-155, channel base

*SUP 3: 121-075 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 121-035 5 month bear channel base projection

*COMMENTARY* Following last week's move below the Dec 2016 base at 122-145, the

Sep 2013 lows at 122-070 have also subsequently given way. A low of 121-310 so

far, just above the 8 week bear channel base projection and the key 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at 121-260 and 121-250 respectively. In the meantime, nearest

resistance comes from 122-175/122-200 but it is still the higher 123-050 region

that holds the key to any real recovery hopes.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Fibo Level Gives Way, Eyeing Channel Supports

*RES 4: 151-06/12 Jan 17 high, Jan 2 low

*RES 3: 150-20 Congestion highs Jan 11-15

*RES 2: 150-10 Jan 15, 16 lows, now resistance

*RES 1: 149-22/25 Jan 23 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: 149-05 @1137GMT

*SUP 1: 148-07 Jan 24 low

*SUP 2: 147-03 6 week & 5 month bear channel base projection 

*SUP 3: 146-23 Mar 14 low

*SUP 4: 146-15 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Having lost 149-17 support last week, has now  broken below the key

76.4% Fibo retrace level at 148-24. Beneath here and two bear channel base

projections are next, the 6 week and the 5 month, both at 147-03 today. These

above the Mar 14 low at 146-23. As a result, nearest resistance now comes from

149-22/149-25 and then 150-10. It is 150-10/150-20 that rallies need to break

for any chance of real respite.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) Finding Some Interim Support At 98.130

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.180 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.140 @1150GMT

*SUP 1: 98.130 Jan 18, Jan 16 lows

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result of this, there is the

chance for a potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of

the December 2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 held the decline last week.

Nearest resistance falls to 98.180, back above would provide some respite but

that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]