MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Decline Moves Below 114-252, Channel Base Next

*RES 4: 115-142 Hourly high Jan 17

*RES 3: 115-092 Jan 23 high

*RES 2: 115-045 Hourly congestion area Jan 24-26

*RES 1: 114-320 Jan 21 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 114-235 @1204GMT

*SUP 1: 114-205 4 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 2: 114-100 Apr 12 2010 low

*SUP 3: 113-315 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: 113-280 Apr 5 2010 low

*COMMENTARY* The descent continues, most latterly through both the 10 week bear

channel base and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level, both at 114-252 today. Next up is

the 4 month bear channel base projection, at 114-205 by time today.

Consequently, resistance also falls, the Jan 21 low at 114-230 now acting as an

initial bar to gains, the 115-045/115-092 region higher. Beneath 114-205 and the

Apr 12 2010 low at 114-100 protects the lower 1% volatility band.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Continues Lower, Finding Some Support From 121-180

*RES 4: 123-015 Jan 12 low, now resistance

*RES 3: 122-175 Jan 23 high

*RES 2: 122-055 Congestion area Jan 24-26

*RES 1: 122-015 Jan 21 low, now resistance 

*PRICE: 121-225 @1225GMT

*SUP 1: 121-180 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 121-030 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: 121-020 month bear channel base projection

*SUP 4: 120-115 61.8% Fibo of 111-005/135-155

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to tumble, following on from the break below the Sep

2013 low at 122-070 earlier in the month. The 8 week channel base has now given

way, a low of 121-180 so far, before some oversold hourly conditions have come

to the near term rescue. Resistance comes from the Jan 21 low at 122-015 but

likely requires a move back above 122-055 before any real upside interest will

appear. Below 121-180 and the lower 1% volatility band comes into view next.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Volatility Band Protects Channel Bases

*RES 4: 150-10 Jan 15, Jan 16 lows, now resistance

*RES 3: 149-16/22 Jan 25, Jan 23 highs

*RES 2: 149-03 Jan 10 low, now resistance

*RES 1: 148-20 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 147-29 @1235GMT

*SUP 1: 147-20 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: 146-30 7 week & 5 month bear channel base projection 

*SUP 3: 146-23 Mar 14 low

*SUP 4: 146-06 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Has lost support from both 149-17 and the key key 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at 148-24 over the last couple of weeks. Beneath here and the

lower 1% volatility band at 147-20, is the next area of support, ahead of the 7

week and 5 month bear channel base projections, which coincide at 146-30 today.

Meanwhile, 148-20 and then more significantly 149-03 provide resistance to any

recovery efforts.

     US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (H18) 98.130 Gives Way On Approach To 98.080 Support

*RES 4: 98.245 Dec 28-29 highs

*RES 3: 98.225 Jan 3 high

*RES 2: 98.205 Dec 20-27 lows, Jan 5 high

*RES 1: 98.160 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 98.120 @1243GMT

*SUP 1: 98.115 Intraday low

*SUP 2: 98.080 Dec 2015 low

*SUP 3: 98.055 Nov 2015 low

*SUP 4: 97.995 38.2% Fibo of 95.980-99.240

*COMMENTARY* It began with the slip below 98.205 support on Jan 4 and has been

followed by a further break below 98.165. As a result, there is the chance for a

potentially deeper fall, as not much is currently evident ahead of the December

2015 low at 98.080. Meanwhile, 98.130 has given way, the day's 98.115 low now

the protection to 98.080. Nearest resistance falls to 98.160, back above would

provide some respite but that 98.205 level now provides a tougher ask.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]