MNI US Morning Fixed Income Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8pyhnq

US 5YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 114-040 Support Gives Way, Focus On 113-292/113-272

*RES 4: 114-157 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: 114-135/140 Apr 11, Apr 6 highs

*RES 2: 114-100 Apr 12 high

*RES 1: 114-050 Apr 10 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 113-320 @1044GMT

*SUP 1: 113-292 Hourly support

*SUP 2: 113-272 Mar 9 low

*SUP 3: 113-180/190 1.618 projection from 114-140, Mar 21 low

*SUP 4: 113-032 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The 114-040/114-050 support finally gave way on Thursday, moving

below next support from 114-007 in the process. Now looking at the potential for

a 113-292/113-272 fall next, as we give back gains seen since the Mar 21 low at

113-190. Loss of 113-272 would see overall bias switch to lower again, with the

113-190/113-180 area at risk of test again. Resistance from between

114-050/114-100 but 114-135/114-157 presents a tougher ask above.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-110/120-080 Area Becomes Pivotal To Direction

*RES 4: 121-050 Apr 4 high

*RES 3: 121-035 Apr 11 high

*RES 2: 120-310 Apr 12 high

*RES 1: 120-215 Apr 10 low, now resistance

*PRICE: 120-150 @1052GMT

*SUP 1: 120-110 Mar 26 low

*SUP 2: 120-080 Equality fall from 121-035 to 121-120/120-165

*SUP 3: 120-065 Feb 16 high, now support

*SUP 4: 120-025 Mar 19 low

*COMMENTARY* The move back above 120-230 on Mar 23 was the first inkling of an

upside revival which was carried on by the further rise through 120-280 at the

beginning of the month. A high of 121-120 just shy of the next resistance of

real note, the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at 121-145. Meanwhile, support from

120-250/120-230 has been lost, the lower 120-110/120-080 area now exposed, this

is anticipated to stay out of trouble, if gains are to continue.

US 30YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18)  Focus Returns Toward 144-25/144-20 Support

*RES 4: 147-14 1% volatility band, 50% of 153-14/141-14

*RES 3: 147-03 Apr 2 high

*RES 2: 146-28 Apr 11 high

*RES 1: 146-14 Apr 12 high

*PRICE: 145-10 @1104GMT

*SUP 1: 145-03 Apr 12 low

*SUP 2: 144-20/25 Mar 2 high, Apr 5 low

*SUP 3: 144-04/06 8 week rising support line, Mar 23 low

*SUP 4: 143-26 Feb 26 high, now support 

*COMMENTARY* Rally continued last week, breaking above the previous 146-24 high,

to reach 147-03 and a test to the upper 1% volatility band. Some near term

overbought conditions have since arisen, resulting in a loss of 145-22/145-11

but so far this has been held by 144-25/144-20 support, as ideally any pullbacks

are held above here, if recent upside momentum is to remain undisturbed.

Resistance from 146-14/146-28 now in front of a return to 147-03/147-14.

US EURODOLLAR TECHS: (M18) Swing Target At 97.625 Under Pressure Today

*RES 4: 97.775 Mar 6 high

*RES 3: 97.740/745 Mar 27-28 highs, 6 month falling res line

*RES 2: 97.715 Apr 2 high

*RES 1: 97.685/690 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: 97.620 @1112GMT

*SUP 1: 97.620/625 Intraday low, 1.618 swing of 97.700-97.820

*SUP 2: 97.585 Jun 29 2015 low

*SUP 3: 97.560 1.618 swing of 97.630-97.740

*SUP 4: 97.515 50% Fibo of 95.835/99.200

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to fall this week, the first swing target at 97.625

under pressure today. Any lower and not much is currently evident ahead of the

Jun 2015 low at 97.585 and more importantly the second swing target at 97.560.

As a consequence, initial resistance has fallen to 97.685-97.690 but no real

respite is likely to be forthcoming, until such time as the 6 month falling

resistance line, currently at 97.745 is broken.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]