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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Range Break Suggests Scope For A $1.2047-$1.2065 Move
*RES 4: $1.2065 1.618 swing of $1.1911-$1.1662
*RES 3: $1.2042/47 2% volatility band, July 2012 low
*RES 2: $1.2009 1.618 projection target from $1.1740
*RES 1: $1.1960 Aug 25 high
*PRICE: $1.1932 @0850GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1885/90 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1823/28 Aug 23, Aug 21 highs, now support
*SUP 3: $1.1773 Aug 25 low
*SUP 4: $1.1731/40 Aug 21, Aug 23 lows
*COMMENTARY* The slight upside bias came to the fore late on Friday. The rally
through $1.1847 resulting in a high of $1.1960 so far, before some near term
overbought conditions have applied a brake. In this respect, look to $1.1885-90
for initial support, last week's two previous highs from $1.1828-$1.1823, a
potentially stronger base below. Directly above $1.1960 and look to the
projection target at $1.2009 next, ahead of the $1.2042-$1.2065 area.
CABLE TECHS: Once Again The $1.2917-$1.2939 Area Becomes Resistance
*RES 4: $1.3022 50% of $1.3269-$1.2774, Aug 14 high
*RES 3: $1.2963/70 38.2% of $1.3269-$1.2774, Aug 15 high
*RES 2: $1.2939 Aug 11 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2917/21 Aug 21, Aug 18, Aug 25 highs
*PRICE: $1.2901 @0905GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2865/75 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2837 Aug 24 high, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2794 Aug 25 low
*SUP 4: $1.2764/74 38.2% of $1.1947-$1.3269, Aug 23 low
*COMMENTARY* Found a base from just above dual Fibo support between
$1.2764-$1.2749. Friday's bounce has once again encountered resistance in the
$1.2917-$1.2921 region. This area also the base of the previously broken 5 month
bull channel. Will likely need the further stimulation of a break above here and
the Aug 11 low at $1.2939, before belief in a higher correction of losses from
the month's $1.3269 high will surface. Nearest support $1.2875-$1.2837.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Still Lacking A Clear Y109.83 Break
*RES 4: Y110.93/95 38.2% of Y114.50-Y108.73, Aug 16 high
*RES 3: Y110.60 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y110.38 Aug 17 high
*RES 1: Y109.83/85 Aug 23, Aug 25 highs
*PRICE: Y109.19 @0911GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.03/05 Intraday low, hourly support
*SUP 2: Y108.85 Aug 23 low
*SUP 3: Y108.40/60 1% volatility band, Aug 18 low
*SUP 4: Y108.13 Apr 17 low
*COMMENTARY* Still clinging to support from above the Aug 18 low at Y108.60,
aided in part by the 'Doji' candle close on the daily chart on that day. Has
survived another assault last week a low of Y108.64, before seeing another
bounce and the chance for a better recovery. So far this has reached Y109.83-85,
without as yet challenging tougher resistance between Y110.38-Y110.95. Initial
support Y109.05-Y108.85 but lose Y108.60-Y108.40 and the outlook changes again.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.73-Y129.77 Break Returns Overall Focus To The Topside
*RES 4: Y131.85 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Y131.53 Underside prev broken 5 month support line
*RES 2: Y131.41 Aug 2 high
*RES 1: Y130.65/71 1% volatility band, intraday high
*PRICE: Y130.34 @0926GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.90/95 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y129.69 Initial high Aug 25, now support
*SUP 3: Y129.11/19 Aug 25 low, Aug 22 high
*SUP 4: Y128.79 Aug 18 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band has provided a prop over the last few
days and indeed allowed a recovery, which has accelerated after breaking above
the Y129.73-Y129.77 area. This has returned the overall focus back to the
topside, with resistance from around the upper 1% volatility band, now the brake
to a Y131.41-Y131.53 return. Meanwhile, Y129.95-Y129.69 provides an initial
support area, with Y129.19-Y129.11 below.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Still Guided By The Upper 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: Stg0.9358 2% volatility band
*RES 3: Stg0.9310 Equality rise from 0.8743 to 0.8313-0.8880
*RES 2: Stg0.9282 4 month bull channel top projection
*RES 1: Stg0.9266/68 1% volatility band, Aug 25 high
*PRICE: Stg0.9246 @0940GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.9210/20 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.9190 Aug 24 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.9160 Aug 23 low, 7 week rising support line
*SUP 4: Stg0.9144 Aug 16 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* A fresh upside burst on Friday, which once again has been curtailed
around the upper 1% volatility band. For the time being, this stands in the way
of a look at the top of the 4 month bull channel projection and then the
equality rise target from Stg0.8743. Initial support comes from between
Stg0.9210-Stg0.9220 but the Aug 24 low at Stg0.9190 and especially the 7 week
rising support line at Stg0.9160, are more important below.
GOLD TECHS: Rallies After Key $1274.2 Support Survives On Friday
*RES 4: $1318.2 8 week bull channel top projection
*RES 3: $1315.7 76.4% Fibo of $1375.4-$1122.6
*RES 2: $1307.7 1.618 swing of $1292.3-$1267.4
*RES 1: $1300.9 Aug 18 high
*PRICE: $1296.5 @0955GMT
*SUP 1: $1288.5 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1280.6 Aug 18 low
*SUP 3: $1274.2 Aug 1 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1267.4 Aug 15 low
*COMMENTARY* A sharp spike lower on Friday, through the base of the triangular
consolidation, found support from above the Aug 1 high at $1274.2. This thereby
keeping near term momentum with the topside. The subsequent break back above
$1294.4 suggests another attempt on the Aug 18 high at $1300.9 will follow.
Through here and the swing target at $1307.7 and the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
$1315.7 remain next valid targets. Support $1288.5-$1280.6 now protect $1274.2.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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