MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Downside Pressure Sees Focus Return To Key $1.1823-27

Area

*RES 4: $1.2005 Sep 22 high

*RES 3: $1.1955/65 Hourly consolidation area Sep 22

*RES 2: $1.1937 Sep 25 high

*RES 1: $1.1895 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.1853 @0635GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1823/27 Aug 31 low, 61.8% of $1.1662-$1.2093

*SUP 2: $1.1764/73 76.4% of $1.1662-$1.2093, Aug 25 low

*SUP 3: $1.1677 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.1662 Aug 17 low

*COMMENTARY* The recent consolidation phase above key $1.1823 support continues

but resistance from $1.2005 and $1.2034 has capped the rallies over the last few

days and near term pressure has returned to the downside and on to that $1.1823

support. Loss here opens the prospect of a deeper correction of gains from the

Aug 17 low at $1.1662, beginning with $1.1773-$1.1764. Within the range, nearest

resistance now $1.1895-$1.1905 and then Monday's $1.1937 high.

CABLE TECHS: $1.3520-$1.3535 Keeps Immediate Focus On Lower

*RES 4: $1.3617/19 Sep 15, Sep 18 highs

*RES 3: $1.3596/01 Sep 22 high, 4 year falling res line

*RES 2: $1.3571 Sep 25 high

*RES 1: $1.3520/35 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3491 @0650GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3430 Sep 25 low

*SUP 2: $1.3406 Sep 14 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1.3344 Hourly basing area Sep 14, 1% volatility band

*SUP 4: $1.3321 38.2% Fibo of $1.2774-$1.3659

*COMMENTARY*  The key near term $1.3450 level came under assault on Monday,

bending slightly to a low of $1.3430 before receiving near term support. That

said, will need to see a lift back above $1.3520-$1.3535 before immediate

pressure is reduced and allow a move back higher into the recent range, below

the month's $1.3659 high. Below $1.3430 and look to $1.3406 next,

$1.3344-$1.3321 the next targets below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Key Y111.45 Support The Clue To Direction Today

*RES 4: Y113.00 50% Fibo of Y118.67-Y107.32

*RES 3: Y112.72/81 Sep 21 high, 76.4% Fibo of Y114.50-Y107.32

*RES 2: Y112.33 Sep 25 recovery highs

*RES 1: Y112.05/15 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y111.60 @0700GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.45/50 Hourly congestion area Sep 20

*SUP 2: Y111.04/11 Sep 14 high, Sep 20 low 

*SUP 3: Y110.66/67 38.2% Fibo Y107.32-Y112.72, Aug 31 high

*SUP 4: Y110.43 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw a move through the Y112.20-Y112.42 barrier, toward

the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at Y112.81. This the first of congested resistance

from between here and Y113.00. This an area that also includes the year's

falling resistance line at Y112.83 and a longer term 50% Fibo retracement. Will

need to clear here, before fresh upside impetus will follow. In the meantime,

support from above Y111.45, loss of the latter would caution now.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Correcting Lower After 61.8% Fibo Retrace Caps Rise

*RES 4: Y134.41 61.8% Fibo of Y149.80-Y109.51, Sep 22 high

*RES 3: Y133.85 Hourly congestion area Sep 22-25

*RES 2: Y133.50/53 Sep 22 low, hourly base Sep 22

*RES 1: Y132.85/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y132.20 @0707GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.89 50% Fibo of Y129.37-Y134.41

*SUP 2: Y131.51/55 76.4% of Y130.62-Y134.41, 1% vol band

*SUP 3: Y131.30 61.8% Fibo of Y129.37-Y134.41

*SUP 4: Y130.56/62 76.4% of Y129.37-Y134.41, Sep 14 low

*COMMENTARY* The rally failed at Y134.41 last week, in line with a test to the

61.8% Fibo retrace of the long term  Y149.80-Y109.51 fall. In the interim, we

have seen a fall below Y133.26, beneath which opens the prospect of a deeper

Y131.89-Y131.51 decline, as we correct the most recent gains from the Sep 14 low

at Y130.62. Meanwhile, nearest resistance falls to Y132.85-Y133.05. Back above

the latter currently needed for respite.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8743 Support Now Protects Against A Stg0.8692 Drop

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 Sep 22 high

*RES 3: Stg0.8845/55 Hourly lows/high Sep 22

*RES 2: Stg0.8824 Hourly high Sep 25

*RES 1: Stg0.8795/05 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8763 @0715GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8752 1% volatility band

*SUP 2: Stg0.8743 Jul 14 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8692 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306

*SUP 4: Stg0.8664 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Unable to break back above the key Stg0.8900-Stg0.8908 resistance

last week. As a result, pressure has again returned to the downside and

Stg0.8774 support has given way. This seen as the protection to the still

important Stg0.8743 level and the added potential for a further Stg0.8692 fall.

In the meantime, Stg0.8795-Stg0.8805 provides near term resistance, back above

here needed before any chance of respite.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Halted, Watching $1314.4-$1319.9 Resistance

*RES 4: $1334.5 Sep 14 high

*RES 3: $1322.7 Sep 12 low, now resistance

*RES 2: $1319.9 Broken support line

*RES 1: $1314.4 Sep 15 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1307.8 @0720GMT

*SUP 1: $1299.1 Sep 22 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1288.1 Sep 21 low

*SUP 3: $1281.2 50% Fibo of $1204.8-$1357.7

*SUP 4: $1274.7 Aug 25 low

*COMMENTARY* After breaking below the 2 month rising support line last week, the

fall has found some support from $1288.1, as we correct gains from the Jul 10

low at $1204.8. To be of any substance however, will need to see a recovery

through $1314.4 and then the underside of that support line residing at the

higher $1319.9 by time today. Nearest support now derived from last Friday's

$1299.1 high.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]