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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1605-$1.1595 Protects Against A Fresh Down Move
*RES 4: $1.1790 Initial low Oct 20, now resistance
*RES 3: $1.1753 Oct 25 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.1725/30 Oct 23, Oct 18 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.1675/80 Hourly highs Oct 26
*PRICE: $1.1639 @0914GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1595/05 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.1574 Oct 27 low
*SUP 3: $1.1516 5 week bear channel base projection
*SUP 4: $1.1506 1.618 swing of $1.1649-$1.1880
*COMMENTARY* Still finding near term support from above last Friday's $1.1574
low, as we continue to correct some near term oversold conditions. Having moved
above $1.1644, this now sees $1.1675-$1.1680 as the next resistance area of
note, before we reach the more important $1.1725-$1.1730 region. A move back
above the latter is needed to disrupt recent downside momentum. In the meantime,
look to $1.1605-$1.1595 as protection against a fresh down move.
CABLE TECHS: Rally Approaches Next $1.3334-$1.3343 Resistance Area
*RES 4: $1.3456 Sep 28 high
*RES 3: $1.3418 61.8% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027
*RES 2: $1.3381 Equality rise from $1.3070 to $1.3027-$1.3338
*RES 1: $1.3338/43 Oct 13 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3659-$1.3027
*PRICE: $1.3299 @0950GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3267 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.3215/24 Oct 30 high, initial high Oct 31
*SUP 3: $1.3192 Oct 31 low
*SUP 4: $1.3166 Hourly base Oct 30 
*COMMENTARY* Higher again today, moving through the previous Oct 26 high at
$1.3280. Now looking towards the $1.3338-$1.3343 area for next resistance, a
combination of the Oct 13 high and a 50% Fibo retrace level. The upper 1%
volatility band is also at $1.3334 today. As a result, support also on the rise,
the day's $1.3267 low now protecting the more important $1.3224-$1.3215 area.
Above $1.3343 and look to the equality rise target at $1.3381 next.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Recovery Aims For A Test To Y114.10 Fibo Resistance
*RES 4: Y115.37 1.618 swing of Y114.45-Y112.96
*RES 3: Y114.74 1% volatility band
*RES 2: Y114.45/50 Oct 27, Jul 11 highs
*RES 1: Y114.10 76.4% Fibo of Y114.45-Y112.96
*PRICE: Y113.95 @1000GMT
*SUP 1: Y113.60 Hourly base Oct 31
*SUP 2: Y113.20/30 Hourly support
*SUP 3: Y112.96 Oct 31 low
*SUP 4: Y112.70/72 Initial high Oct 19, 61.8% Fibo retrace
*COMMENTARY* Making the most of support found on Tuesday from Y112.96. The
subsequent recovery has been swift, now heading towards the pivotal 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at Y114.10. This of losses sustained since the Y114.45 high of
last Friday. Through Y114.10 and that Y114.45-Y114.50 region then becomes the
next barrier higher, perhaps to a Y114.74-Y115.37 rise. Meanwhile, Y113.60
provides support against some near term corrective action.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Continues Correction Of Recent Y134.50-Y131.46 Fall
*RES 4: Y134.39 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y133.78 76.4% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46
*RES 2: Y133.34 61.8% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46
*RES 1: Y132.96/98 Oct 27 high, 50% Fibo of Y134.50-Y131.46
*PRICE: Y132.68 @1015GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.25/30 Hourly support
*SUP 2: Y131.93 Initial recovery high Oct 30, now support
*SUP 3: Y131.75 Oct 27 low
*SUP 4: Y131.41/46 Aug 2 high, Oct 30 low
*COMMENTARY* Still in the process of correcting some of the Y134.50-Y131.46 fall
seen over the last week. The latest rise through Y132.59 now opens the way for a
look at Y132.96-Y132.98 next. This a combination of a previous high from Oct 27
and a 50% Fibo retrace level. In the meantime, support also rises,
Y132.30-Y132.25 initially and this currently protects against a more sizeable
pullback of this week's gains from Y131.46.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Decline Continues, Stg0.8737 Protects Lower Stg0.8692 Level
*RES 4: Stg0.8851/54 Oct 26 low, hourly high Oct 27
*RES 3: Stg0.8826 Oct 27 low, hourly high Oct 27
*RES 2: Stg0.8805 Initial low Oct 31, now resistance
*RES 1: Stg0.8793 Oct 30 low, now resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8750 @1026GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8737 1.618x Stg0.9032-Stg0.8856 from Stg0.9022
*SUP 2: Stg0.8719 Jun 16 low
*SUP 3: Stg0.8692 61.8% of Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306, 2% vol
*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low
*COMMENTARY* The pullback has continued this week, falling below the 76.4% Fibo
retrace level at Stg0.8813 and also beneath the lower 1% volatility band at
Stg0.8782 by time today. This sees the Sep 27 low at Stg0.8746 and the 1.618
projection target at the slightly lower Stg0.8737, as the next downside
objectives. Resistance Stg0.8793-Stg0.8805 now the bar to any near term
recovery. Lose Stg0.8737 and focus becomes Stg0.8692.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2927 Break Needed If Rally To Continue
*RES 4: $1.3006/16 2% volatility band, Jul 3 high
*RES 3: $1.2984 1.618 swing of $1.2917-$1.2808
*RES 2: $1.2969 Jan 31 low, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2917/27 Oct 27 high, 50% Fibo of $1.3794-$1.2061
*PRICE: $1.2878 @1030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2835 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2807/08 23.6% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917, Oct 27 low
*SUP 3: $1.2781 Oct 26 low
*SUP 4: $1.2739 38.2% Fibo of $1.2451-$1.2917
*COMMENTARY* Friday saw a brief spike above the upper 2% volatility band, as the
upside moved to chase down the 50% Fibo retrace level at $1.2927. A high of
$1.2917 twice now, before succumbing to some overbought hourly conditions. Now
looking to $1.2807-$1.2781 support for next clues. While above, there is scope
to regroup and another attempt higher. Meanwhile, $1.2835 provides interim
GOLD TECHS: $1278.9 Break Allows Further Upside Corrective Potential
*RES 4: $1296.1 76.4% Fibo of $1306.1-$1263.8
*RES 3: $1291.5 Oct 18 high
*RES 2: $1286.1 Oct 23 high
*RES 1: $1282.6 Oct 26 high
*PRICE: $1279.0 @1039GMT
*SUP 1: $1274.1 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1267.7 Oct 31 low
*SUP 3: $1263.8 Aug 8 low
*SUP 4: $1260.7 Oct 9 low
*COMMENTARY* The $1271.4 support level gave way last week, resulting in a low of
$1263.8 on Friday, just ahead of the next key level, the Oct 9 low at $1260.7.
As a result, has become oversold on a near term basis and with the move back
above $1278.9, is now looking to correct further, the losses sustained since the
Oct 16 high at $1306.1. This now sees $1282.6 as the next bar to a continued
$1286.1-$1296.1 rise. Support rises to $1274.1-$1267.7.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: