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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Reaches Upper 2% Volatility Band, 'Doji' Candle
Close
*RES 4: $1.2598 61.8% Fibo of $1.3994-$1.0340
*RES 3: $1.2571 Dec 15 2014 high
*RES 2: $1.2538 Jan 25 high
*RES 1: $1.2495/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2435 @1558GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.2395 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.2364 Jan 25 low
*SUP 3: $1.2323 Jan 17 high, now support
*SUP 4: $1.2296 Jan 19 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* Rally reached the upper 2% volatility band on Thursday, before
retreating on the back of some heavily overbought conditions. The lower close
has brought about a potentially bearish 'Doji' candle on the daily chart. While
$1.2500-$1.2538 caps then the immediate risk is for lower. Support
$1.2395-$1.2364, loss of the latter will caution and open up deeper corrective
potential. Above $1.2538 will ease pressure, $1.2571-$1.2598 resistance above.
CABLE TECHS: Rally Falters Ahead Of $1.4368 Fibo Level
*RES 4: $1.4368 61.8% Fibo of $1.5932-$1.1838
*RES 3: $1.4346 Jan 25 high
*RES 2: $1.4287 Intraday high
*RES 1: $1.4255 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.4185 @1603GMT
*SUP 1: $1.4148 Intraday low
*SUP 2: $1.4130 Hourly base Jan 24
*SUP 3: $1.4083 Jan 25 low
*SUP 4: $1.4024/28 Equality fall from $1.4287, Jan 23 high
*COMMENTARY* As suggested yesterday, the overstepping of the the upper 2%
volatility band, at $1.4265 by time today, is never a long lasting scenario, so
always cautious when it happens. The subsequent fall from $1.4346-$1.4083 is
perhaps the first warning of some heavily overbought conditions. Meanwhile,
$1.4255-$1.4287 in the way of a $1.4346-$1.4368 rise. Above which not much until
$1.4505-$1.4515. Support 1.4130, back below the latter would concern.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Y108.50 Protects Downside From Another Challenge
*RES 4: Y110.49/59 Jan 19 low, hourly highs Jan 23
*RES 3: Y110.19 Jan 17 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y109.77/81 Intraday high, hourly base Jan 24
*RES 1: Y109.50/55 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y108.63 @1610GMT
*SUP 1: Y108.50 Jan 25 low
*SUP 2: Y108.22/27 Sep 11, Aug 29 lows
*SUP 3: Y107.72 1.618 swing of Y108.50-Y109.77
*SUP 4: Y107.44 1.618x Y114.74-Y110.84 from Y113.75
*COMMENTARY* Broke slightly below Y108.60 support, a low of Y108.50 before
recovering swiftly, aided by some heavily oversold hourly conditions. Below
Y108.50 and not much tp protect the downside from another fall to still
important Y108.27-Y108.22. Resistance Y109.50-Y109.55 but above Y109.81 is
required to add more impetus to any rise and a better correction of recent
losses from Y111.23-Y111.48.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Range Trading Continues 
*RES 4: Y137.08 5 month channel top, 1% volatility band
*RES 3: Y136.64 Jan 5 high
*RES 2: Y136.31 Jan 18 high
*RES 1: Y135.75/95 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y135.00 @1615GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.92 Jan 24 low
*SUP 2: Y134.58 Hourly low Jan 12
*SUP 3: Y134.35 1% volatility band, Jan 11 high
*SUP 4: Y133.82 76.4% Fibo of Y133.05-Y136.31
*COMMENTARY* Still basically range trading above Y134.92 support. While held
here, there is scope to return higher towards the range highs at
Y136.31-Y136.64. The 5 month rising support line and upper 1% volatility band at
the higher Y137.07 region today. Loss of Y134.92 would caution and open up
corrective potential, Y134.58-Y133.82 then possible.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: December Low At Stg0.8689 Survives Pressure
*RES 4: Stg0.8838 Jan 18 high
*RES 3: Stg0.8802 Jan 18 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Stg0.8796 Jan 23 high
*RES 1: Stg0.8786 Jan 25 high
*PRICE: Stg0.8763 @1618GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8708/10 1% volatility band, hourly support
*SUP 2: Stg0.8687/89 Jan 25, Dec 8 lows
*SUP 3: Stg0.8620 2% volatility band
*SUP 4: Stg0.8543/47 Swing target, 76.4% Stg0.8313-Stg0.9306
*COMMENTARY* The Dec 8 low at Stg0.8689 was squeezed on Thursday, a slightly
lower Stg0.8687 seen, before bouncing again. This now allows some interim
Stg0.8710-Stg0.8708 support above. Will need to sustain a move back through
Stg0.8770-Stg0.8775 however, before once again being in a position to challenge
Stg0.8796, above which is required to continue the correction of losses from the
month's earlier Stg0.8925-Stg0.8930 highs.
     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Pressure Back On Lower 1% Volatility Band
*RES 4: $1.2455 Congestion area Jan 22-23
*RES 3: $1.2435 Jan 22 low, now resistance
*RES 2: $1.2400 Jan 18-19 lows, now resistance
*RES 1: $1.2360/70 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.2326 @1622GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2282/86 Jan 25 low, 1% volatility band
*SUP 2: $1.2264 76.4% Fibo of $1.2061-$1.2921
*SUP 3: $1.2209 1.618 swing of $1.2355-$1.2591
*SUP 4: $1.2162 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* The decline continued on Thursday, leaving the Jan 5 low at $1.2355
behind, as we look to test the resolve of the lower 1% volatility band at
$1.2286 by time today. Lower and the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.2264 offers next
protection against a deeper $1.2209 fall. Meanwhile, resistance is seen from
$1.2360-$1.2370 but needing to escape $1.2400 before any correction has room to
breathe.
GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next
*RES 4: $1401.2 13 month bull channel top projection
*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4
*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high
*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high
*PRICE: $1354.0 @1627GMT
*SUP 1: $1346.0 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1342.5 Jan 25 low
*SUP 3: $1339.6 Jan 24 low
*SUP 4: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support
*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the
upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from
last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through
$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at
$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at
$1380.3. Support moving too, $1342.5-$1339.6 now the nearest of note.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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