MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

16 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.1889

*RES 4: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 2: $1.2019 200-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1835 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 2: $1.1716 Monthly Low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1.1708 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support

*COMMENTARY: The significance of the $1.2019-53 resistance region where the

200-DMA is noted was confirmed Monday with the pair remaining capped ahead of

this region. Pressure is now on 2018 lows with a close below initially targeting

$1.1690-1.1716 and overall focus on $1.1552 Now lows. Bulls now look for a close

above $1.1889 to gain breathing room and target a correction back to $1.2019-67

where 21 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3617

*RES 4: $1.3666 High May 2 

*RES 3: $1.3617 High May 9 

*RES 2: $1.3572 High May 15 

*RES 1: $1.3527 Hourly resistance May 15

*PRICE: $1.3495 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3449 2018 Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $1.3392 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.3300 Monthly Low Dec 15 

*SUP 4: $1.3208 Low Nov 21

*COMMENTARY: Oscillation around the 200-DMA ($1.3553) continues but follow

through remains lacking with O/S daily studies correcting and momentum

divergence seen as key concerns for bears. Bulls need a close above $1.3617 to

gain breathing room and above $1.3711 to shift initial focus to $1.3792-1.3917

where, 55 ($1.3917) & 100 ($1.3893) DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below

$1.3449 to initially target $1.3300.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.02 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.22 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: Y110.46 55-WMA

*PRICE: Y110.16 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.02 High May 2 now support 

*SUP 2: Y109.64 Low May 15 

*SUP 3: Y109.13 Low May 11, 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y108.53 Low Apr 24

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips provided the impetus for a close above the

200-DMA with the pair hesitating around the 55-WMA. Bulls look for a close above

the 55-WMA to shift immediate focus to Y111.22-98 and overall focus to the

200-WMA (Y112.97). Bears now need a close below Y110.02 to gain breathing room

and below the 100-DMA (Y108.43) to shift initial focus back to Y107.43-85 where

the 55-DMA is noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Topside Failures A Concern

*RES 4: Y132.39 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.41 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 1: Y131.25 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.37 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.91 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.67 Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.19 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23

*COMMENTARY: Despite day studies correcting from O/S and adding support to the

case for a bigger correction, bears take comfort in the hesitation around the

55-DMA. The topside failure around the 55-DMA now sees focus back on the break

of Y129.91 needed to reconfirm immediate focus on 2018 lows. Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA to add to ease bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA

(Y132.63) to shift focus to Y133.48-134.10.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8725 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8868 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8844 High May 4 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8779 55-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8771 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8725 Low May 9 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8701 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Gbp0.8844-0.8904 where the 200-DMA is noted has

resulted in a close back below the 55-DMA, easing bullish pressure and seeing

immediate focus on Gbp0.8725. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8725 to shift

overall focus back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and return focus to Gbp0.8844-0.8904. Above Gbp0.8904 is needed

to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and initially target 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: $1.3048 - Low Mar 16 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2996 - High May 5

*RES 2: $1.2923 - High May 15

*RES 1: $1.2875 - Hourly resistance Apr 16

*PRICE: $1.2858 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2836 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.2793 - Low May 15 

*SUP 3: $1.2731 - Low May 11 

*SUP 4: $1.2689 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA took its toll with a break higher Tuesday

although follow through has been lacking. Bulls now focus on the $1.2996-1.3048

region with a close above needed to see bulls target $1.3124-97 where 2018 highs

are noted. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room

and below $1.2793 to shift focus back to $1.2648-1.2731 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7589 - High Apr 26

*RES 3: $0.7555 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7519 - Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7502 - Hourly resistance May 15

*PRICE: $0.7483 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7436 - Hourly support May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 4: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA resulted in an aggressive break of

the $0.7472-0.7519 support region that sees immediate focus back on tests of

2018 lows. A close below current 2018 lows would confirm focus on the $0.7326-68

region where May & June 17 lows are noted. Daily studies are well placed for a

fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $0.7519 to ease bearish pressure

and above $0.7589 to shift initial focus back to $0.7648.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1317.4 - Low May 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.6 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1301.5 - Low May 1 now resistance

*PRICE: $1293.3 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1288.3 - 2018 Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $1277.7 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 

*SUP 4: $1234.4 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection around key DMAs Friday has now resulted in fresh 2018

lows and closes below the 55-WMA ($1297.7) and 200-DMA with bears initially

focused on $1268.9-1277.7 where the 100-WMA is situated. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake

with bulls now needing a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]