MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Making The Most Of Tuesday's Hold Above $1.1649-$1.1641 

*RES 4: $1.1881 76.4% Fibo of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 3: $1.1830/32 May 22 high, equality rise from $1.1617

*RES 2: $1.1802/10 Hourly resistance, 61.8% of $1.1996-$1.1510

*RES 1: $1.1787/95 1.618 swing $1.1725-$1.1617, 1% vol band

*PRICE: $1.1741 @0845GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1725 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1708/14 Hourly base Jun 5, intraday low

*SUP 3: $1.1674/75 Hourly basing area Jun 4

*SUP 4: $1.1653 Jun 5 low

*COMMENTARY* As stated yesterday, all is not lost especially while support from

$1.1649-$1.1641 is able to contain any setbacks. A low of $1.1653 before finding

the ability to rally again, through $1.1745-$1.1754 resistance. This now sees

$1.1787-$1.1795 as next potential barrier, $1.1802-$1.1810 higher. Meanwhile,

support rises to $1.1725 and then more importantly from $1.1714-$1.1708. Loss

here would caution. Above $1.1810 and $1.1830-$1.1832 comes into play next.

CABLE TECHS: Rally Approaches Next $1.3440-$1.3465 Target Zone

*RES 4: $1.3520 76.4% Fibo of $1.3618-$1.3204

*RES 3: $1.3481/87 23.6% Fibo of $1.4377-$1.3204, May 4 low

*RES 2: $1.3460/65 May 10 low, 61.8% $1.3618-$1.3204, 1% vol

*RES 1: $1.3440 Equality rise from $1.3295 to $1.3254-$1.3399

*PRICE: $1.3417 @0900GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3380/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3355 Hourly congestion Jun 4-5

*SUP 3: $1.3331/33 Hourly low Jun 5, hourly low Jun 4 

*SUP 4: $1.3295 Jun 4 low

*COMMENTARY* Was slow to take up the opportunity given the break above $1.3370

on Monday. A high of $1.3399 before giving back a lot of ground, finally coming

to rest at $1.3295, just above the next support of note at $1.3283. Has since

recovered again through $1.3399, with 1.3440 now the barrier to what looks the

next likely target area around $1.3460-65. As a result, support currently rises

to $1.3385-$1.3355 but only back below $1.3333-$1.3331 will caution at present.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Reaches 61.8% Fibo Retrace Level

*RES 4: Y111.08 May 18 high

*RES 3: Y110.62 76.4% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11

*RES 2: Y110.34/47 1.618 swing of Y110.01-Y109.47, 1% vol band

*RES 1: Y110.14 61.8% Fibo of Y111.40-Y108.11

*PRICE: Y110.06 @0909GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.60/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y109.37/47 Jun 4, Jun 5 lows

*SUP 3: Y109.08 May 30 high, now support

*SUP 4: Y108.55 Hourly basing area May 30-31

*COMMENTARY* The recovery has now stretched above Y109.75-Y109.83 resistance,

moving towards the next Fibo retrace of note, the 61.8% at Y110.14. Close to

overbought again in the near term, so eyes are on Y109.70-Y109.37 support. A

loss of the latter would caution, putting pressure back on the May 30 high at

Y109.08. Upside momentum would take a hit on a move below here, Y108.55-Y108.39

then next support lower. Above Y110.14 and look to Y110.34-Y110.47 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Next Target Zone Situated Between Y129.54-Y129.78

*RES 4: Y131.06 50% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62

*RES 3: Y130.29 2% volatility band

*RES 2: Y129.78 76.4% Fibo of 131.38-124.62

*RES 1: Y129.54/58 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y124.62, i'day high

*PRICE: Y129.36 @0925GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y128.20 Hourly congestion Jun 4-Jun 5

*SUP 3: Y127.79 Jun 5 low

*SUP 4: Y127.13 Jun 1 low

*COMMENTARY* Has continued to regain ground, following last week's exhaustion

spike to the base of the 4 month bear channel. Today we have seen the rally move

through Y128.80-Y129.00 resistance, the latter the upper 1% volatility band.

This sees the 38.2% Fibo retrace level at Y129.54 as the next potential barrier

to cross, a maintained break having potential for the 76.4% Fibo level at

Y129.78 next. Meanwhile, Y128.70 provides support, Y128.20 below.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724 Support Has Held Recent Setbacks

*RES 4: Stg0.8886 61.8% Fibo of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8620

*RES 3: Stg0.8840/42 1% volatility band, May 4 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8809/10 Jun 1, May 8 highs

*RES 1: Stg0.8790 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8757 @0935GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8724/26 Jun 5, Jun 1 lows

*SUP 2: Stg0.8697 May 29 low

*SUP 3: Stg0.8673/81 76.4% Stg0.8620-Stg0.8842, Apr 26 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8664 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* The game of snakes and ladders has continued, the

Stg0.8810-Stg0.8697 range having been fully exploited over the last week or so,

most latterly failing at Stg0.8809. This basically a 76.4% Fibo retrace of the

Stg0.8842-Stg0.8697 fall, seen since the beginning of May. Will need through

here, before the chance of a Stg0.8840-Stg0.8842 return. Support within the

range at Stg0.8726-Stg0.8724, has dealt with recent setbacks.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Struggling Around Base Of 30 Month Support Line 

*RES 4: $0.7774 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412

*RES 3: $0.7718/30 76.4% of $0.7813-$0.7412, 2% vol band

*RES 2: $0.7689 38.2% Fibo of $0.8136-$0.7412

*RES 1: $0.7666/73 Base 30 month support line, i'day high

*PRICE: $0.7649 @0943GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7615/25 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7594/95 May 31 high, Jun 5 low

*SUP 3: $0.7570 Hourly congestion area May 30-31

*SUP 4: $0.7553 May 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Has broken above the 2018 falling resistance at $0.7627-$0.7618,

depending on whether you look at the daily or weekly chart. But so far finding

it a struggle to deal with resistance from the upper 1% volatility band and then

the base of the previously broken 30 month support line at $0.7666. Maintained

clearance here will encourage, $0.7689-$0.7718 next. Support currently from

$0.7625-$0.7615 but more importantly from $0.7595-$0.7594.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.2914-$1.2895 Protects Against Further Correction

*RES 4: $1.3125 Mar 19 high

*RES 3: $1.3064/67 2 1/2 year falling res line, Jun 5 high

*RES 2: $1.3035 Hourly highs Jun 5

*RES 1: $1.2980/85 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2938 @0952GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2914 Jun 5 low

*SUP 2: $1.2895/00 Hourly recovery high May 30, Jun 4 low

*SUP 3: $1.2855 Hourly congestion May 15-21

*SUP 4: $1.2809/18 76.4% of $1.2729-$1.3067, May 31 low

*COMMENTARY* Having found support from $1.2818 last Thursday, then proceeded to

correct the previous fall from $1.3047 by just over 76.4%, with Friday's spike

high to $1.3008. The subsequent pullback has since held support above $1.2895

providing the springboard for Tuesday's rally through $1.3008-$1.3047. Has

reached $1.3067 so far, basically a test to the 2 1/2 year resistance line.

Decent pullback now has $1.2914 and once again $1.2895 protecting the downside.

GOLD TECHS: Still Having Trouble With 9 Week Falling Resistance Line

*RES 4: $1326.0 May 11 high

*RES 3: $1314.9 May 15 high

*RES 2: $1307.9 May 25 high

*RES 1: $1300.2 9 week falling resistance line

*PRICE: $1294.8 @0956GMT

*SUP 1: $1287.8 May 23 low

*SUP 2: $1282.2 May 21 low

*SUP 3: $1267.2 76.4% Fibo of $1236.6-$1366.2

*SUP 4: $1266.3 1.618 swing of $1282.2-$1307.9

*COMMENTARY* Lost support from the key $1286.6-$1286.1 area last month which

raised some concerns. This the rising support line at the time, from the

December 2016 lows and the 61.8% Fibo retrace level of this year's

$1236.6-$1366.2 rise. If this can be sustained, then there is not much to stop

an eventual $1267.2 fall. In the meantime, Still having trouble with the 9 week

falling resistance line, so eyes back on $1287.8-$1282.2 support.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]