MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

17 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1734 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1673 Low July 16 

*SUP 2: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.1610 Low July 13 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1728) was lacking last week and

resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below

this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to

confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls

now need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA, easing

bearish pressure, and above the 55-WMA ($1.1928) to shift initial focus to

$1.1983-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1983) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.

     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3195

*RES 4: $1.3446 High June 14 

*RES 3: $1.3362 High July 9 

*RES 2: $1.3339 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3300 High July 10

*PRICE: $1.3268 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3195 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 2: $1.3144 Hourly resistance July 13 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.3079 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.3190 bought bulls breathing room but the $1.3362

resistance remains key. A close above $1.3362 remains needed to confirm a break

of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to the 55-WMA ($1.3460). The recovery from

ahead of the $1.3092 support is a concern for bears who are focused on

$1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted. Bears now need a close below $1.3195

to ease pressure on resistance layers and below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June

2017 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y111.86

*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 2: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y112.35 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued

fresh 7mth highs last week with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region

where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the

Bollinger top (Y112.60) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.85 where key DMAs and the

bull channel base (Y110.73) off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y133.48 Monthly High Apr 24

*RES 3: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 now resistance

*RES 2: Y132.10 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: Y131.92 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y131.90 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.38 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 2: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 

*SUP 3: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 4: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.55). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.10) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y131.38 to gain

breathing room and below Y130.64 to shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below

Y129.83 hints at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to

confirm.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8779 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8981 High Nov 28 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8847 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8814 Low July 16 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: The marginal dip below the 21 (Gbp0.8825) & 200 (Gbp0.8818) DMAs

lacked follow through Monday with bulls taking comfort in the bounce. In saying

that, bulls still need a close above Gbp0.8904 to shift immediate focus to

Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger top is noted at Gbp0.8878 and recently

limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779 support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is

needed to confirm breaks of 55 (Gbp0.8792) & 100 (Gbp0.8786), shifting focus

back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: $1.3222 - High July 2 

*RES 3: $1.3204 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1.3180 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3148 - Hourly resistance July 16

*PRICE: $1.3125 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3092 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 2: $1.3067 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: $1.3030 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $1.2941 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at the $1.3204-68 region where the 21-DMA is noted has

taken its toll with the pair remaining offered and focus on layers of support

$1.3030-94 where the 55-DMA and bull channel base are situated. Bears now need a

close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a test of the

$1.2731-1.2864 region where the bull channel base off 2018 lows and the 200-DMA

are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3268 to shift initial

focus to $1.3384 June highs and overall focus to $1.3516-1.3569 where daily bull

channel tops are noted.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7487 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7424 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7397 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 12 

*SUP 3: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain

breathing room and below $0.7308 to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017 lows.

Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance have

followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close

above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move back

to $0.7590-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7590) & 200 ($0.7682) DMAs are located with

above $0.7552 confirming.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1271.5 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 2: $1254.3 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1244.5 @ 0930GMT

*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 3: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gold continues to flirt with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows

($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm

breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Daily studies have room to

move before O/S is an issue. Bulls need a close above $1260.2 to ease bearish

pressure and to return initial focus to $1271.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is

noted. Above $1272.6 remains needed to initially target $1282.3-1292.1 where the

bear channel top off Apr highs and the 55-DMA ($1282.3) are situated.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]