MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally Unable To Sustain $1.1740-$1.1745 Break

*RES 4: $1.1839 Equality rise from $1.1575 to $1.1527-$1.1791

*RES 3: $1.1805 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1775/91 Hourly resistance, Jul 9 high

*RES 1: $1.1751 Intraday high

*PRICE: $1.1704 @1550GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1679/84 Initial high Jul 20, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.1645/55 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20

*SUP 3: $1.1626 Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.1613 Jul 13 low

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came under pressure last Thursday but

survived the test, before launching into a correction of losses seen since the

Jul 9 high at $1.1791. On Friday this recovery was capped by the 76.4% Fibo

retrace level at $1.1740, and the last prominent peak at $1.1745. Will need to

see a sustained rally through this area before thoughts can turn to a higher

$1.1775-$1.1839 rise. In the interim, nearest support rises to $1.1684-$1.1679.

CABLE TECHS: Recovers Well After Challenge To 6 Week Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.3293 Jul 16 high

*RES 3: $1.3269 Jul 17 high

*RES 2: $1.3214/17 76.4% Fibo of $1.3293-$1.2958, Jul 16 low

*RES 1: $1.3159/65 Intraday high, 61.8% $1.3293-$1.2958

*PRICE: $1.3103 @1555GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3084 Jul 19 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1.3050 Initial recovery high Jul 19, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2995 Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.2958/65 Jul 19 low, 6 week bear channel base

*COMMENTARY* Last Thursday saw the base of the 6 week bear channel come under

pressure, a slight dip below, before rallying strongly on Friday. The recovery

aims to test resistance from $1.3165 next, any higher and the $1.3214-$1.3217

area comes back into view. As a consequence, support moves up accordingly. The

first levels of note coming from the Jul 19 high at $1.3084 and then $1.3050. A

loss of the latter would concern again.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback Continues, Y111.14-Y110.96 Support Gives Way

*RES 4: Y112.63 Jul 20 high

*RES 3: Y112.25/35 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20

*RES 2: Y112.05 Jul 19 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y111.70 Hourly high Jul 20

*PRICE: Y111.36 @1602GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.90 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y110.57/65 8 week rising support line, 50% Fibo 

*SUP 3: Y110.28 Jul 4 low

*SUP 4: Y110.05 61.8% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the pullback continue, after peaking at Y113.18 the day

before. Today support from between Y111.14-Y110.96 has given way, an area where

stronger questions would be asked of near term direction. This leaves

Y110.65-Y110.57 as the next key support area. The subsequent bounce through

Y111.30-Y111.35 now has Y111.70 and the Jul 19 low at Y112.05 waiting higher.

Below Y110.57 and look to Y110.28 next.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Continues To Lose Ground After 1% Volatility Band Caps

*RES 4: Y131.50/53 Hourly high Jul 18, Jul 17 low

*RES 3: Y131.21 Jul 20 high

*RES 2: Y130.88 Jul 18 low, now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.50/60 Hourly resistance, initial low Jul 20

*PRICE: Y130.31 @1606GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.86/91 Intraday, Jul 11 lows

*SUP 2: Y129.65/78 1% vol band, 61.8% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99

*SUP 3: Y129.26 76.4% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99

*SUP 4: Y129.09 2 month rising support line

*COMMENTARY* Having broken above key Y131.38-Y131.40 resistance, the rally was

frustrated by the upper 1% volatility band at Y131.99 last Tuesday. The

subsequent fall has now broken below initial support from Y130.42 and the 50%

Fibo retrace level at Y130.20. These were the protection to the key near term

level from the Jul 11 low at Y129.91. Maintained loss would spoil recent upside

momentum. Meanwhile, Y130.50-Y130.88 forms immediate resistance to any recovery.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Rally Has Decent Resistance Between Stg0.8966-Stg0.8969

*RES 4: Stg0.9032 Oct 12 high

*RES 3: Stg0.9013 Nov 15 high

*RES 2: Stg0.8966/69 1% vol, Mar 7 high, 3 month bull channel 

*RES 1: Stg0.8958 Jul 20 high 

*PRICE: Stg0.8930 @1613GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8911 Intraday low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8890/99 Jul 29, Jul 9 highs, now support

*SUP 3: Stg0.8866/73 Jul 13 high, Jul 17 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8850 Congestion area Jun 28-Jul 17

*COMMENTARY* Last week's break above the 9 month bear channel top at Stg0.8908

has seen a rally towards next key resistance from the Stg0.8966-Stg0.8969

region. This the upper 1% volatility band, the Mar 7 high and the current level

of the 3 month bull channel top projection. While capped into here, look for

support from around Stg0.8913 and then Stg0.8899-Stg0.8890. Loss of the latter

would caution now. Above Stg0.8969 and not much until Stg0.9013.

AUSSIE TECHS: Recovery Once Again Faces $0.7443-$0.7445 Resistance

*RES 4: $0.7515 2018 daily falling resistance line

*RES 3: $0.7493 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310

*RES 2: $0.7474/84 1% volatility band, Jul 9-10 highs

*RES 1: $0.7443/45 Ju1 16, Jul 19 highs, 76.4% $0.7484-$0.7318

*PRICE: $0.7382 @1618GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7374 Intraday low

*SUP 2: $0.7360 Hourly congestion Jul 19-Jul 20

*SUP 3: $0.7343 Jul 18 low

*SUP 4: $0.7310/18 Jul 2, Jul 3, Jul 20 lows

*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find a base from within the $0.7318-$0.7310 area.

The latest fall held around the lower 1% volatility band on Friday. The

subsequent bounce has seen us once again reaching towards $0.7443-$0.7445

resistance. The latter a 76.4% Fibo retrace of losses from the the Jul 9-10

highs at $0.7484. Higher and the upper 1% band at $0.7474 and then that $0.7484

level prohibit a $0.7493-$0.7515 challenge. Support between $0.7374-$0.7343.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Correcting After 1% Volatility Band Caps Gains

*RES 4: $1.3246 Initial pullback Jul 20, now resistance

*RES 3: $1.3227 Hourly base Jul 19, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.3190/00 Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $1.3160/65 Jul 19 low, hourly recovery Jul 20

*PRICE: $1.3162 @1623GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3110/18 Jul 16 Jul 17 lows, 76.4% $1.3065-$1.3290

*SUP 2: $1.3065/67 Jul 11 low, Jun 5 high

*SUP 3: $1.3058 50% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387

*SUP 4: $1.3039 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week's rally was constrained at $1.3290 by the upper 1%

volatility band, also falling shy of a test to the next key resistance level,

the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3311. This of the $1.3387-$1.3065 fall between Jun

27 and Jul 11. While capped between here, the risk will be for lower and another

look at $1.3118-$1.3110 support. The latter the protection against another

$1.3065 decline and perhaps $1.3058-$1.3039. Resistance from $1.3160-$1.3200.

GOLD TECHS: Slips Below 61.8% Fibo Level Before Recovering

*RES 4: $1266.0 Jul 9 high

*RES 3: $1253.1 76.4% Fibo of $1266.0-$1211.4

*RES 2: $1245.7 Jul 16 high

*RES 1: $1238.0 Jul 3 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1224.2 @1627GMT

*SUP 1: $1216.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1211.4 Jul 19 low

*SUP 3: $1204.8 Jul 10 2017 low

*SUP 4: $1195.0 Mar 10 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week slipped below support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $1215.7 and posted a low of $1211.4, before staging a near term recovery.

This meets first resistance of note from the Jul 3 low at $1238.0. Back above

here would allow a further $1245.7 rise, with the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1253.1 a stiffer test above. Meanwhile, support rises to $1216.9, loss would

caution again, $1204.8 the next support to watch below $1211.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]