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MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis 

By Les Castell
Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally On Hold While Unable To Sustain $1.1740-$1.1745 Break
*RES 4: $1.1839 Equality rise from $1.1575 to $1.1527-$1.1791
*RES 3: $1.1791/98 Jul 9 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.1751 Jul 23 high
*RES 1: $1.1728 Hourly recovery high Jul 23
*PRICE: $1.1672 @1515GMT 
*SUP 1: $1.1645/54 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20, Jul 24 low
*SUP 2: $1.1626 Jul 20 low
*SUP 3: $1.1613 Jul 13 low
*SUP 4: $1.1565/75 1% volatility band, Jul 20 low
*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came under pressure last Thursday
before launching into a correction of losses seen since the Jul 9 high at
$1.1791. This reached $1.1751 on Monday, just through the 76.4% Fibo retrace
level at $1.1740, and the last prominent peak at $1.1745. Will need to see a
maintained rally through here, before thoughts can turn to $1.1791 again and
perhaps $1.1839-$1.1852. Nearest support now from between $1.1654-$1.1613.
CABLE TECHS: Recovery Continues After Challenge To Bear Channel Base
*RES 4: $1.3293 Jul 16 high, 7 week bear channel top
*RES 3: $1.3269/72 Jul 17 high, 1% volatility band
*RES 2: $1.3214/17 76.4% Fibo of $1.3293-$1.2958, Jul 16 low
*RES 1: $1.3165/75 61.8% of $1.3293-$1.2958, hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3146 @1521GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3071/95 Jul 24 low, hourly support
*SUP 2: $1.3037 Initial recovery high Jul 20, now support
*SUP 3: $1.2995 Jul 20 low
*SUP 4: $1.2955/58 7 week bear channel base, Jul 19 low
*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the base of the now 7 week bear channel come under
pressure, a slight dip below, before rallying strongly on Friday. The recovery
aims to test resistance from $1.3165, a sustained move higher and the
$1.3214-$1.3217 area comes back into view. As a consequence, support moves up
accordingly, $1.3095 and then Tuesday's $1.3071 low.  A loss of the latter would
concern again, $1.3037-$1.2995 then waiting below.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback So Far Holds Above Still Key Y110.65 Level
*RES 4: Y112.25/35 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20
*RES 3: Y112.05 Jul 19 low, now resistance
*RES 2: Y111.70 Hourly high Jul 20
*RES 1: Y111.40/55 Hourly resistance, Jul 23 high
*PRICE: Y110.95 @1527GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.65/75 8 week support line, 50% Fibo, Jul 23 low 
*SUP 2: Y110.28 Jul 4 low
*SUP 3: Y110.05 61.8% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18
*SUP 4: Y109.80 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the pullback continue, after peaking at Y113.18 the day
before. Monday saw support from between Y111.14-Y110.96 give way, a low of
Y110.75, this protecting the next key support from Y110.65, a 50% Fibo retrace
level and the 8 week rising support line. The subsequent bounce through
Y111.30-Y111.35 has Y111.40-Y111.70 as resistance to any further progression. In
the interim, the Y110.90 loss sees pressure return on Y110.75-Y110.65 again.
EURO-YEN TECHS: 1% Volatility Band Break Exposes Y129.32-Y129.26 Support
*RES 4: Y130.88 Jul 18 low, now resistance
*RES 3: Y130.45 Jul 23 high
*RES 2: Y130.20 Intraday high
*RES 1: Y129.90/00 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: Y129.49 @1534GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.32 2 month daily rising support line
*SUP 2: Y129.26 76.4% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99
*SUP 3: Y128.84 Former 2018 resistance line, now support
*SUP 4: Y128.49 Jul 4 low
*COMMENTARY* Having broken above key Y131.38-Y131.40 resistance, the rally was
frustrated by the upper 1% volatility band at Y131.99 last week. The subsequent
fall has since broken below initial support from Y130.42 and the 50% Fibo
retrace level at Y130.20 and today from the lower 1% volatility band at Y129.60.
This exposes the downside to deeper Y129.32-Y129.26 fall. Meanwhile, resistance
from between Y129.90-Y130.20 is the bar to any recovery potential.
EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Continues, Stg0.8873-Stg0.8866 Next Support
*RES 4: Stg0.8968/75 Mar 7 high, 3 month bull channel, 1% vol
*RES 3: Stg0.8958 Jul 20 high 
*RES 2: Stg0.8936 Jul 23 high 
*RES 1: Stg0.8911/19 Jul 23, Jul 20 lows, now resistance
*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @1538GMT
*SUP 1: Stg0.8866/73 Jul 13 high, Jul 17 low
*SUP 2: Stg0.8850 Congestion area Jun 28-Jul 17
*SUP 3: Stg0.8816 Jul 16 low
*SUP 4: Stg0.8797 1% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Last week's break above the 9 month bear channel top at Stg0.8908
has seen a rally towards next key resistance from the Stg0.8968-Stg0.8975
region. This the Mar 7 high, the current level of the 3 month bull channel top
projection and the upper 1% volatility band. Failure to break here has seen a
pullback through Stg0.8999-Stg0.8890 support. Loss cautions and opens up deeper
corrective potential, with Stg0.8873-Stg0.8850 then in the frame.
AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Remains On A Sustained $0.7443-$0.7445 Break
*RES 4: $0.7506 2018 daily falling resistance line
*RES 3: $0.7484/93 Jul 9-10 highs, 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310
*RES 2: $0.7472 1% volatility band
*RES 1: $0.7445/52 76.4% of $0.7484-$0.7318, intraday high
*PRICE: $0.7411 @1542GMT 
*SUP 1: $0.7380 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $0.7343/59 Jul 18, Jul 24 lows
*SUP 3: $0.7310/29 Jul 2, Jul 3, Jul 20 lows, 1% vol band
*SUP 4: $0.7255 2% volatility band
*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find a base from within the $0.7318-$0.7310 area.
The latest fall held around the lower 1% volatility band last Friday. The
subsequent bounce has seen us once again attempting to clear $0.7443-$0.7445
resistance. The latter a 76.4% Fibo retrace of losses from the the Jul 9-10
highs at $0.7484. Higher and the upper 1% band at $0.7472 and then that $0.7484
level prohibit a $0.7493-$0.7506 challenge. Support between $0.7380-$0.7359.
DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.3065-$1.3058 Next Support As Pullback Continues
*RES 4: $1.3210/19 Jul 13-Jul 11 highs
*RES 3: $1.3193 Jul 24 high
*RES 2: $1.3166 Intraday high
*RES 1: $1.3135/45 Hourly resistance
*PRICE: $1.3108 @1557GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3058/67 50% $1.2729-$1.3387, Jul 11 low, Jun 5 high
*SUP 2: $1.3036 1% volatility band
*SUP 3: $1.3017 Equality fall from $1.3193 to $1.3290-$1.3114
*SUP 4: $1.2980 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387
*COMMENTARY* Last week's rally was constrained by $1.3290, the upper 1%
volatility band at the time, falling shy of a test to the next key resistance
level, the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3311. This of the $1.3387-$1.3065 fall
between Jun 27 and Jul 11. While capped here, the risk will return lower,
today's break below $1.3114-$1.3110 will see potential to renew acquaintance
with $1.3067-$1.3058 support. Resistance falls to $1.3135-$1.3166.
GOLD TECHS: $1238.0 The Initial Bar To Recovery Potential
*RES 4: $1266.0 Jul 9 high
*RES 3: $1253.1 76.4% Fibo of $1266.0-$1211.4
*RES 2: $1245.7 Jul 16 high
*RES 1: $1238.0 Jul 3 low, now resistance
*PRICE: $1228.9 @1605GMT
*SUP 1: $1216.9 Hourly support
*SUP 2: $1211.4 Jul 19 low
*SUP 3: $1204.8 Jul 10 2017 low
*SUP 4: $1195.0 Mar 10 2017 low
*COMMENTARY* Last week slipped below support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level
at $1215.7 and posted a low of $1211.4, before staging a near term recovery.
This meets first resistance of note from the Jul 3 low at $1238.0. Back above
here would allow a further $1245.7 rise, with the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at
$1253.1 a stiffer test above. Meanwhile, support rises to $1216.9, loss would
caution again, $1204.8 the next support to watch below $1211.4.
--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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