MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Rally On Hold While Unable To Sustain $1.1740-$1.1745 Break

*RES 4: $1.1839 Equality rise from $1.1575 to $1.1527-$1.1791

*RES 3: $1.1791/98 Jul 9 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.1751 Jul 23 high

*RES 1: $1.1728 Hourly recovery high Jul 23

*PRICE: $1.1672 @1515GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.1645/54 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20, Jul 24 low

*SUP 2: $1.1626 Jul 20 low

*SUP 3: $1.1613 Jul 13 low

*SUP 4: $1.1565/75 1% volatility band, Jul 20 low

*COMMENTARY* The lower 1% volatility band came under pressure last Thursday

before launching into a correction of losses seen since the Jul 9 high at

$1.1791. This reached $1.1751 on Monday, just through the 76.4% Fibo retrace

level at $1.1740, and the last prominent peak at $1.1745. Will need to see a

maintained rally through here, before thoughts can turn to $1.1791 again and

perhaps $1.1839-$1.1852. Nearest support now from between $1.1654-$1.1613.

CABLE TECHS: Recovery Continues After Challenge To Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: $1.3293 Jul 16 high, 7 week bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.3269/72 Jul 17 high, 1% volatility band

*RES 2: $1.3214/17 76.4% Fibo of $1.3293-$1.2958, Jul 16 low

*RES 1: $1.3165/75 61.8% of $1.3293-$1.2958, hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3146 @1521GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3071/95 Jul 24 low, hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.3037 Initial recovery high Jul 20, now support

*SUP 3: $1.2995 Jul 20 low

*SUP 4: $1.2955/58 7 week bear channel base, Jul 19 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week saw the base of the now 7 week bear channel come under

pressure, a slight dip below, before rallying strongly on Friday. The recovery

aims to test resistance from $1.3165, a sustained move higher and the

$1.3214-$1.3217 area comes back into view. As a consequence, support moves up

accordingly, $1.3095 and then Tuesday's $1.3071 low.  A loss of the latter would

concern again, $1.3037-$1.2995 then waiting below.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Pullback So Far Holds Above Still Key Y110.65 Level

*RES 4: Y112.25/35 Hourly congestion Jul 19-20

*RES 3: Y112.05 Jul 19 low, now resistance

*RES 2: Y111.70 Hourly high Jul 20

*RES 1: Y111.40/55 Hourly resistance, Jul 23 high

*PRICE: Y110.95 @1527GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.65/75 8 week support line, 50% Fibo, Jul 23 low 

*SUP 2: Y110.28 Jul 4 low

*SUP 3: Y110.05 61.8% Fibo of Y108.11-Y113.18

*SUP 4: Y109.80 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Friday saw the pullback continue, after peaking at Y113.18 the day

before. Monday saw support from between Y111.14-Y110.96 give way, a low of

Y110.75, this protecting the next key support from Y110.65, a 50% Fibo retrace

level and the 8 week rising support line. The subsequent bounce through

Y111.30-Y111.35 has Y111.40-Y111.70 as resistance to any further progression. In

the interim, the Y110.90 loss sees pressure return on Y110.75-Y110.65 again.

EURO-YEN TECHS: 1% Volatility Band Break Exposes Y129.32-Y129.26 Support

*RES 4: Y130.88 Jul 18 low, now resistance

*RES 3: Y130.45 Jul 23 high

*RES 2: Y130.20 Intraday high

*RES 1: Y129.90/00 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: Y129.49 @1534GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.32 2 month daily rising support line

*SUP 2: Y129.26 76.4% Fibo of Y128.42-Y131.99

*SUP 3: Y128.84 Former 2018 resistance line, now support

*SUP 4: Y128.49 Jul 4 low

*COMMENTARY* Having broken above key Y131.38-Y131.40 resistance, the rally was

frustrated by the upper 1% volatility band at Y131.99 last week. The subsequent

fall has since broken below initial support from Y130.42 and the 50% Fibo

retrace level at Y130.20 and today from the lower 1% volatility band at Y129.60.

This exposes the downside to deeper Y129.32-Y129.26 fall. Meanwhile, resistance

from between Y129.90-Y130.20 is the bar to any recovery potential.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: Pullback Continues, Stg0.8873-Stg0.8866 Next Support

*RES 4: Stg0.8968/75 Mar 7 high, 3 month bull channel, 1% vol

*RES 3: Stg0.8958 Jul 20 high 

*RES 2: Stg0.8936 Jul 23 high 

*RES 1: Stg0.8911/19 Jul 23, Jul 20 lows, now resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8880 @1538GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8866/73 Jul 13 high, Jul 17 low

*SUP 2: Stg0.8850 Congestion area Jun 28-Jul 17

*SUP 3: Stg0.8816 Jul 16 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8797 1% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Last week's break above the 9 month bear channel top at Stg0.8908

has seen a rally towards next key resistance from the Stg0.8968-Stg0.8975

region. This the Mar 7 high, the current level of the 3 month bull channel top

projection and the upper 1% volatility band. Failure to break here has seen a

pullback through Stg0.8999-Stg0.8890 support. Loss cautions and opens up deeper

corrective potential, with Stg0.8873-Stg0.8850 then in the frame.

AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Remains On A Sustained $0.7443-$0.7445 Break

*RES 4: $0.7506 2018 daily falling resistance line

*RES 3: $0.7484/93 Jul 9-10 highs, 50% Fibo of $0.7677-$0.7310

*RES 2: $0.7472 1% volatility band

*RES 1: $0.7445/52 76.4% of $0.7484-$0.7318, intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7411 @1542GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7380 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $0.7343/59 Jul 18, Jul 24 lows

*SUP 3: $0.7310/29 Jul 2, Jul 3, Jul 20 lows, 1% vol band

*SUP 4: $0.7255 2% volatility band

*COMMENTARY* Still trying to find a base from within the $0.7318-$0.7310 area.

The latest fall held around the lower 1% volatility band last Friday. The

subsequent bounce has seen us once again attempting to clear $0.7443-$0.7445

resistance. The latter a 76.4% Fibo retrace of losses from the the Jul 9-10

highs at $0.7484. Higher and the upper 1% band at $0.7472 and then that $0.7484

level prohibit a $0.7493-$0.7506 challenge. Support between $0.7380-$0.7359.

DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: $1.3065-$1.3058 Next Support As Pullback Continues

*RES 4: $1.3210/19 Jul 13-Jul 11 highs

*RES 3: $1.3193 Jul 24 high

*RES 2: $1.3166 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.3135/45 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.3108 @1557GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3058/67 50% $1.2729-$1.3387, Jul 11 low, Jun 5 high

*SUP 2: $1.3036 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $1.3017 Equality fall from $1.3193 to $1.3290-$1.3114

*SUP 4: $1.2980 61.8% Fibo of $1.2729-$1.3387

*COMMENTARY* Last week's rally was constrained by $1.3290, the upper 1%

volatility band at the time, falling shy of a test to the next key resistance

level, the 76.4% Fibo retrace at $1.3311. This of the $1.3387-$1.3065 fall

between Jun 27 and Jul 11. While capped here, the risk will return lower,

today's break below $1.3114-$1.3110 will see potential to renew acquaintance

with $1.3067-$1.3058 support. Resistance falls to $1.3135-$1.3166.

GOLD TECHS: $1238.0 The Initial Bar To Recovery Potential

*RES 4: $1266.0 Jul 9 high

*RES 3: $1253.1 76.4% Fibo of $1266.0-$1211.4

*RES 2: $1245.7 Jul 16 high

*RES 1: $1238.0 Jul 3 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $1228.9 @1605GMT

*SUP 1: $1216.9 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1211.4 Jul 19 low

*SUP 3: $1204.8 Jul 10 2017 low

*SUP 4: $1195.0 Mar 10 2017 low

*COMMENTARY* Last week slipped below support from the 61.8% Fibo retrace level

at $1215.7 and posted a low of $1211.4, before staging a near term recovery.

This meets first resistance of note from the Jul 3 low at $1238.0. Back above

here would allow a further $1245.7 rise, with the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at

$1253.1 a stiffer test above. Meanwhile, support rises to $1216.9, loss would

caution again, $1204.8 the next support to watch below $1211.4.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]