Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- NVIDIA TUMBLES AFTER DISAPPOINTING FORECAST
- FED'S BOSTIC WANTS MORE DATA TO CONFIRM SEPT CUT
- HARRIS LEADS TRUMP IN ARIZONA, GEORGIA, NEVADA - FOX NEWS POLL
- ISRAEL LAUNCHES MAJOR OPERATION IN WEST BANK
Figure 1: Germany’s DAX index hits fresh record high
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
NEWS
CORPORATE (BBG): Nvidia Tumbles After Disappointing Forecast, Blackwell Snags
Nvidia Corp. failed to live up to investor hopes with its latest results on Wednesday, delivering an underwhelming forecast and news of production snags with its much-awaited Blackwell chips. The company’s quarterly report - the most anticipated part of the tech industry’s earnings season - met or beat analysts’ estimates on nearly every measure. But Nvidia investors have grown accustomed to blowout quarters, and the latest numbers didn’t qualify.
FED (MNI): Fed's Bostic Wants More Data to Confirm Sept Cut
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday recent data has pulled forward his view on when the Fed should first start lowering interest rates, but added that further data could confirm his bias toward waiting longer if it looks like inflation is stickier and the labor market is holding up well. Inflation has "come down faster than I expected and actually I didn't expect the unemployment rate to move as far as it had. So, both of those would suggest that we're closer to where we want to be than I had anticipated before, but suggested we should move our policy action closer," Bostic said at an event.
US (BBG): Harris Leads Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada: Fox News Poll
Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by one point in Arizona and by two points in Georgia and Nevada, while Trump leads Harris by one point in North Carolina, a Fox News battleground state poll finds. In Arizona, Harris leads Trump 50% to 49%. In Georgia and Nevada, Harris leads Trump 50% to 48%. In North Carolina, Trump leads Harris 50% to 49%. Data collected between Aug. 23-26 among 4,053 registered voters; the margin of sampling error for each state is +/- 3 percentage points.
US (BBG): Supreme Court Keeps Biden Student-Loan Relief Plan on Hold
The US Supreme Court refused for now to reinstate President Joe Biden’s latest push to reduce student-loan bills for millions of people, keeping the multibillion-dollar plan on hold while a fresh legal fight over educational debt plays out. The court turned away an administration request to lift a pause a federal appeals court imposed on the program in a lawsuit by Missouri and other Republican-led states. The order didn’t indicate that any justices dissented.
US/CHINA (MNI): White House NSA Sullivan - We Are Committed to High Level Diplomacy
MNI (London) Wires carrying comments from White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a meeting in Beijing. Xi: “China is committed to stable relationship based on win-win cooperation... We hope that the US will work in the same direction as China… hope US will see Chinese development as 'possibility not a challenge' and work to get along.” Sullivan: “President Biden is committed to managing this relationship and to make sure competition does not lead to conflict… We are committed to maintaining high-level diplomacy… President Biden looks forward to engaging with you in the coming weeks.”
ISRAEL (WaPo): Israel Launches Major Operation in West Bank; Palestinian Officials Say 11 Killed
Hundreds of Israeli troops launched raids in several areas of the occupied West Bank on Wednesday, carrying out mass arrests, engaging in gun battles and killing at least 11 Palestinians, according to Palestinian health officials. The Israel Defense Forces said counterterrorism operations began overnight, focused on the northern West Bank areas of Jenin, Tulkarm and al-Fara'a refugee camp. It said that the operation was carried out in coordination with Israel Border Police forces and the internal security service and that it was in the "first phases," IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said Wednesday.
UK (The Times): Rachel Reeves Tells Whitehall to Make Huge Cuts Before Autumn Budget
The chancellor is setting out detailed savings targets that “really scrape the bone” in Whitehall after Sir Keir Starmer warned of “painful” further spending cuts to come in the autumn. Several departments are understood to have been told to find more than £1 billion in savings each, with others ordered to find hundreds of millions of pounds in a cost-cutting drive that goes well beyond an attempt to fund public sector pay rises.
EU (MNI): Foreign Ministers Meet in Brussels as Hungary Snubbed
EU foreign ministers hold an informal meeting today (29 Aug) in Brussels in a notable snub to the gov't of Hungarian PM Viktor Orban. This meeting was due to take place in Budapest, but last month European Commission High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell announced that a concurrent gathering of foreign ministers would take place in Brussels, effectively wresting control of the hosting duties (and agenda setting) from Hungary.
CHINA (BBG): PBOC’s New Bond Trading Web Page Stokes Bets on Imminent Action
China’s central bank created a new section for its bond-trading operations on its website, stoking speculation it may soon start buying or selling sovereign debt. Under a web page about its open-market operations, the People’s Bank of China added a section for statements on “buying and selling of government bonds” late Wednesday. Various theories analyzing the central bank’s intentions have emerged since - some say it may sell a part of its holdings soon to tame the bond rally, while others argue it will buy debt from lenders that have participated in a private auction.
JAPAN (MNI): Japan Govt Upgrades Economic View, Private Consumption
Japan’s government upgraded its overall economic assessment in August and its view on private consumption, both the first upward revision in 15 months, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday. The government said the Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace, although it recently appears to be pausing “in part." Private consumption had “shown movements of picking up recently, while weakness remains in some sectors,” which refer to slowing traveling and sentiment improvement.
BRAZIL (BBG): Brazil Threatens to Block X in Escalating Clash With Elon Musk
Brazil’s top judge threatened to block Elon Musk’s X if the social media platform doesn’t appoint a legal representative in the country within 24 hours, escalating a clash between the mercurial billionaire and Latin America’s largest economy. The order came days after the platform formerly known as Twitter vowed to close its operations in Brazil, while keeping the service available to its estimated 20 million active users in the country.
COMMODITIES (BBG): Iron Ore’s ‘Irrational’ Rally Past $100 Triggers Warning
Iron ore has jumped by about 10% in 10 days to breach $100 a ton, prompting the official journal of China’s metals industry to pen a long article on why the gains are overdone. The steelmaking material has powered higher in the face of a barrage of downbeat commentary on prospects for Chinese demand - including from top global iron ore miner BHP Group Ltd. The advance is piling pressure on China’s struggling steelmakers, according to state-affiliated China Metallurgical News.
DATA
GERMANY DATA (MNI): MNI Projects 1.8% Y/Y National CPI, Core CPI 2.7%
- BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG AUG CPI -0.3% M/M, +1.5% Y/Y
- BAVARIA AUG CPI -0.1% M/M, +2.1% Y/Y
- BRANDENBURG AUG CPI -0.2% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y
- HESSE AUG CPI -0.1% M/M, +1.5% Y/Y
- NRW AUG CPI -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y
- SAXONY AUG CPI -0.2% M/M, +2.6% Y/Y
From state-level data that equates to 89.1% weighting of the national August flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) fell by around 0.1 to 0.2% M/M (July 0.3%) and rose 1.8% Y/Y (July 2.3%). Analyst consensus currently stands at 2.1% Y/Y and 0.0% M/M (if only the analysts who forecast M/M are included, consensus for Y/Y would be 2.0%), so there seem to be downside risks of 1-3 tenths for headline inflation. Current tracking of Core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies around 2.7% (2.9% in July) and 0.0% M/M (0.3% July).
SPAIN DATA (MNI): August Inflation Lower Than Expected But Core Sticky
- SPAIN AUG FLASH CPI +0% M/M, +2.2% Y/Y
- SPAIN AUG FLASH HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y
- SPAIN AUG FLASH CORE CPI +2.7% Y/Y
Spanish preliminary August HICP came in lower than expected on the yearly rate at +2.4% Y/Y (vs +2.5% cons; +2.9% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.0% M/M (0.2% cons; -0.7% prior). The national CPI also came in below expectations at +2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.4% cons; 2.8% prior) and 0.0% M/M (vs 0.2% cons; -0.5% prior). Core CPI came in above expectations, however, at +2.7% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.8% prior). The headline rate was driven lower by fuel prices (partially due to base effects), the statistics office added. Additionally, "although to a lesser extent", by the fall in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices.
SWEDEN DATA (MNI): Q2 GDP Stronger Than Implied by Flash Indicator, But Still Negative
- SWEDEN Q2 GDP +0.5% Y/Y
- SWEDEN Q2 GDP -0.3% Q/Q
- SWEDEN JUL RETAIL SALES -0.5% Y/Y
The flash GDP indicator once again proved an unreliable estimate of actual GDP, after Q2's final print was -0.3% Q/Q (vs flash of -0.8% Q/Q). While today's Economic Tendency Indicator (due 0800BST/0900CET) will provide a more forward-looking view of activity, this GDP outturn should temper expectations for a 50bp Riksbank rate cut in September, given the sentiment from Monday's minutes. The actual GDP outturn remains below the Riksbank's June MPR forecast of 0.0% Q/Q though, so should prompt some adjustments to the growth profile at the September forecast round.
JAPAN DATA (MNI): Japan Aug Confidence Index Unchanged
Japan's consumer confidence index in August was unchanged from July as two out of four components rose from the previous month and the government left its assessment that consumer confidence is marking time, data released by the Cabinet Office on Thursday showed. The indexes linked to overall economic well-being and the willingness to buy durable goods increased, but the indexes linked to income conditions and the labour market fell.
FOREX: EUR Sinks as German Regions Point to Disappointing National Print
- The single currency is softer early Thursday as regional German CPIs followed Spanish inflation data in disappointing to the downside, suggesting the national German inflation print later today will come in below forecast. EUR/USD trades below $1.11 as a result, and EURGBP has also fallen 0.3% on the day. A negative close in the cross today would extend the losing streak to seven sessions, with the cross revisiting the lows seen across July below the 0.8400 mark. The extension down reinforces the bearish significance of the recent break of the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8.
- CHF similarly trades poorly, partially unwinding a small part of the recent strength and allowing for a bounce off the multi-month low printed in USD/CHF earlier this week. Speculation around SNB involvement and persistent bullish options positioning in the CHF has helped trigger and oversold condition in USD/CHF in recent weeks, which is modestly reversing into the Thursday NY crossover.
- NZD trades well, dragging AUD with it, and helping NZD/USD press 0.63. A clearance above the handle would be the first since January - with the more solid commodities backdrop (iron ore, gold and silver higher) and bounce off lows for equities adding to the theme.
- A raft of US data crosses later today, with the secondary reading of Q2 US GDP due alongside initial jobless claims data for the latest week, and July retail inventories. Pending home sales are set to follow. ECB's Lane and Nagel are set to speak as well as another appearance from Fed's Bostic, who spoke late yesterday.
EGBS: Rally Following Soft German State-Level Inflation, Peripherals Tighten
EGB futures rallied after the German state-level flash August inflation data suggested downside risks to the national release, due at 1300BST/1400CET today.
- MNI projects national CPI (non-HICP print) fell by around 0.1 to 0.2% M/M (July 0.3%) and rose 1.8% Y/Y (July 2.3%). Analyst consensus currently stands at 2.1% Y/Y and 0.0% M/M.
- The Spanish flash CPI/HICP was also below consensus, while Eurozone economic sentiment was a little stronger than expectations.
- Bund futures are +23 at 134.32, after reaching a post-inflation data high of 134.49. First resistance at 135.17 (Aug 14 high) remains some way off though.
- ECB-dated OIS have seen a light bout of dovish repricing, with 67bps of easing priced through ’24 (vs 65bps this morning). This has allowed cash curves to bull steepen.
- 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are a little tighter, with European equities extending higher.
- 5/10-year BTP supply was well digested, aided by sizeable coupon/redemptions due for reinvestment as of today.
- Focus turns to the aforementioned German inflation data, alongside this afternoon’s US GDP/jobless claims releases.
GILTS: Light Rally on German State CPIs
Gilts rally on the back of the state level German CPI data.
- Still, futures stick within the initial technical levels provided by Tuesday’s range extremes (98.54 & 99.21), last +20 at 98.91.
- Yields 1-2bp lower across the curve.
- SONIA futures +0.75-3.0.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed on the day, showing roughly 40bp of cuts through the Dec MPC.
- The local calendar is empty until tomorrow, with the release of the DMO’s quarterly issuance calendar headlining on Friday.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Sep-24 | 4.909 | -4.1 |
| Nov-24 | 4.689 | -26.1 |
| Dec-24 | 4.545 | -40.5 |
| Feb-25 | 4.342 | -60.8 |
| Mar-25 | 4.199 | -75.1 |
| May-25 | 4.034 | -91.7 |
| Jun-25 | 3.940 | -101.0 |
EQUITIES: Bullish Theme in E-Mini S&P Intact Despite Moderate Pullback Wednesday
Eurostoxx 50 futures are holding on to their latest gains. The contract has recently pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4877.69. An extension higher would undermine the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Sights are on 4951.00 next, the Jul 31 high. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 4494.00, the Aug 5 low. Initial support lies at 4854.57, the 20-day EMA. A bullish theme S&P E-Minis is intact and the contract traded to a fresh cycle high Monday. Price has recently cleared 5600.75, Aug 1 high, signalling scope for an extension towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 5721.25, the Jul 16 high. A break would resume the primary uptrend. Support to watch lies at 5508.99, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it is required to instead highlight a potential bearish threat. The latest move lower appears corrective.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 9.23 pts or -0.02% at 38362.53 and the TOPIX ended 0.9 pts higher or +0.03% at 2693.02.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 14.323 pts or -0.5% at 2823.106 and the HANG SENG ended 93.87 pts higher or +0.53% at 17786.32.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 63.93 pts or +0.34% at 18845.11, FTSE 100 higher by 16.9 pts or +0.2% at 8361.09, CAC 40 up 31.85 pts or +0.42% at 7609.04 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 25.06 pts or +0.51% at 4938.02.
- Dow Jones mini up 175 pts or +0.43% at 41353, S&P 500 mini up 0.25 pts or +0% at 5609.75, NASDAQ mini down 13.75 pts or -0.07% at 19398.5.
Time: 09:50 BST
COMMODITIES: Trend Conditions in Gold Unchanged and Bullish
WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows and the contract traded sharply higher Monday. However, price has pulled back from its latest highs and again traded lower yesterday. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at $78.54, the Aug 12 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger bullish reversal. For bears, an extension lower would once again expose the $70.88 key support. Trend conditions in Gold are unchanged and remain bullish. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that moving average studies are still in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2475.3, the 20-day EMA. Short-term weakness would be considered corrective.
- WTI Crude down $0.35 or -0.47% at $74.23
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.33% at $2.107
- Gold spot up $11.89 or +0.47% at $2516.35
- Copper down $3.5 or -0.83% at $418.2
- Silver up $0.38 or +1.29% at $29.4987
- Platinum up $4.82 or +0.52% at $940.75
Time: 09:50 BST
MNI (LONDON)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 29/08/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** |  DE | HICP (p) |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | * |  CA | Current account |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
| 29/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 29/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 29/08/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 29/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 29/08/2024 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result |
| 29/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 29/08/2024 | 1930/1530 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 30/08/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 30/08/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 30/08/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 30/08/2024 | 0030/1030 | ** |  AU | Retail Trade |
| 30/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
| 30/08/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 30/08/2024 | 0630/0730 |  GB | UK DMO to release FQ3 issuance calendar | |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
| 30/08/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 30/08/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** |  CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
| 30/08/2024 | 0705/0905 |  EU | ECB's Schnabel at Ragnar Nurkse Lecture | |
| 30/08/2024 | 0735/0935 | EU | ECB's Schnabel in panel at Ragnar Nurkse | |
| 30/08/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
| 30/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 30/08/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 30/08/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 30/08/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 30/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |
| 30/08/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
| 30/08/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
| 30/08/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/08/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 30/08/2024 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 30/08/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.