MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Jan 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• Attention is swiftly turning to the next quarterly refunding round, with Treasury’s borrowing estimates out on Mon Jan 29, followed by the refunding announcement itself of Wed Jan 31. We will preview the announcement toward the end of January in greater detail.
• But this month's Deep Dive includes a "mini preview" of three key elements to watch: first the increases in Treasury coupon sizes, second the guidance for future quarters, and third the likely announcement of a buyback program.
• Basically, expectations center around a similar increase across coupon sizes as seen in the November round, with Feb-Apr representing the final upsizing in this cycle.
• December’s coupon auctions were generally mixed, with 4 coupon sales tailing and 3 trading through. Three of the tailing auctions were particularly weak, with MNI’s Relative Strength Indicator printing around -1.5 for the 3s, 10s and20s auctions.
• January’s coupon Treasury auction schedule kicks off Tue Jan 9 with $52B in 3Y Note.MNI’s Treasury / Bill issuance calendar is regularly updated at this link.

Please see PDF for full analysis:

MNI_US_DeepDive_Issuance_2024_01.pdf