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MNI VIEW: More dissenters in May; June in play; August most likely for cut

BOE
  • Reading through the views of those who were unchanged, it looks as though some are setting up to vote for a cut in May. Prior to the meeting we had seen Ramsden and Breeden as the most likely early shifters.
  • Given the focus on wage growth remaining high we think the 3 former hawkish dissenters i.e. Greene (who changed last month) and Haskel/Mann (who changed this month). We think they will continue to vote for rates on hold for some time.
  • Will 1 more labour market print (which is all we will get before the May decision) be enough to change the views of the other members (Bailey, Broadbent, Pill)? We don't think so. We will get 3 more prints by June (that meeting is definitely still in play). And we still be closely watching their comments, but we still think on balance August looks more likely for the first cut.
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