Free Trial

MNI VIEW: More dissenters in May; June in play; August most likely for cut

BOE
  • Reading through the views of those who were unchanged, it looks as though some are setting up to vote for a cut in May. Prior to the meeting we had seen Ramsden and Breeden as the most likely early shifters.
  • Given the focus on wage growth remaining high we think the 3 former hawkish dissenters i.e. Greene (who changed last month) and Haskel/Mann (who changed this month). We think they will continue to vote for rates on hold for some time.
  • Will 1 more labour market print (which is all we will get before the May decision) be enough to change the views of the other members (Bailey, Broadbent, Pill)? We don't think so. We will get 3 more prints by June (that meeting is definitely still in play). And we still be closely watching their comments, but we still think on balance August looks more likely for the first cut.
149 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Reading through the views of those who were unchanged, it looks as though some are setting up to vote for a cut in May. Prior to the meeting we had seen Ramsden and Breeden as the most likely early shifters.
  • Given the focus on wage growth remaining high we think the 3 former hawkish dissenters i.e. Greene (who changed last month) and Haskel/Mann (who changed this month). We think they will continue to vote for rates on hold for some time.
  • Will 1 more labour market print (which is all we will get before the May decision) be enough to change the views of the other members (Bailey, Broadbent, Pill)? We don't think so. We will get 3 more prints by June (that meeting is definitely still in play). And we still be closely watching their comments, but we still think on balance August looks more likely for the first cut.