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Modest Bear Flattening Ahead Of The FOMC

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have sold off this morning ahead of the FOMC announcement, led by the short-end/belly.
  • 2Y yields are +2.0bps at 1.037%, 5Y +2.6bps at 1.581%, 10Y +1.6bps at 1.785% and 30Y +1.6bps at 2.128%. 2Y yields are up 10bps from Monday’s low to get within 3.5bps of recent highs.
  • TYH2 has traded in a narrow range on low volumes ahead of the Fed. At 128-02+, it’s at the low end of yesterday’s range. Support is seen at 127-28 (Jan 21 low) and then the bear trigger of 127-02 (Jan 19 low) whilst resistance is at 128-24+ (20-day EMA).
  • FOMC policy announcement (1400ET/1900GMT) followed by press conference (1430ET).
  • Data: Second tier Dec releases with advanced international trade and inventories (0830ET) before new home sales (1000ET).
  • Issuance: US Tsy $40B 119D bill CMB auction plus US Tsy $26B 2Y FRN Note auction (1130ET).
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