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Modest Bull Flattening Ahead Of FOMC

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see a limited bull flattening through early trade. It comes as front-end yields more heavily resist the rally having earlier touched new highs for the cycle at 2.8134% as pricing of hike expectations through 2022 firms ahead of the FOMC decision.
  • 2YY -0.2bps at 2.781%, 5YY -1.9bps at 3.003%, 10YY -1.7bps at 2.954%, 30YY -1.5bps at 2.994%.
  • TYM2 sits half a tick higher at 118-18 on below average volumes in a continuation from yesterday’s US session. The outlook is seen as bearish, but it currently doesn’t trouble support at 118-04+ (May 3 low) or resistance at 119-30+ (20-day EMA).
  • FOMC: Policy announcement at 1400ET, presser 1430ET
  • Data: ADP employment for April (cons 383k after 455k), the trade balance for Mar, and S&P Global PMIs/ISM surveys for April plus weekly MBA mortgage apps and interest rate.
  • Issuance: US Tsy $30B 119D bill auction (1130ET).
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