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Free AccessModest Disinflation Expected In January Amid Energy VAT Increases
The January Eurozone inflation round begins with Spain tomorrow (Tuesday Jan 30) at 0800GMT/0900CET. Although the flash release contains little in the way of details, we preview tomorrow's print in the below. We will release our full Eurozone Inflation preview tomorrow morning, shortly after the Spanish print is released. Spain had an 11% weight in the overall EZ basket in 2023.
- HICP consensus (bbg): 3.0% Y/Y (3.3% prior) / -0.6% M/M (0.0% prior)
- CPI consensus (bbg): 3.0% Y/Y (3.1% prior) / -0.2% M/M (0.0% prior)
- Core CPI consensus (bbg): 3.3% Y/Y (vs 3.8% prior)
- The headline rate is expected to be primarily driven by increases in the VAT on electricity and gas.
- VAT on both gas and electricity has risen to 10% (vs 5% prior), and analysts have noted additional changes to taxes on electricity and electricity generation.
- Morgan Stanley estimate the total impact of the above changes to be around +26bp to headline CPI.
- Barclays forecast a +9.0% M/M change in electricity HICP and a +4.8% M/M change in gas HICP.
- Nomura look for a smaller increase in electricity HICP (+1.0% M/M) but a +6.5% M/M rise in gas HICP.
- Core components are expected to continue disinflation, as in the other major Eurozone countries.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.