July 16, 2024 06:54 GMT
Modest Dovish Moves In SONIA As Crude & Stocks Pressured, 50bp Of ’24 BoE Cuts Priced
STIR
SONIA futures generally edge higher as European equities and crude oil soften, last flat to +3.0.
- BoE-dated OIS is little changed to ~3bp more dovish through mid-25, showing 11bp of cuts for Aug and 50.5bp of easing through year end.
- Despite the optimism surrounding political stability, the latest BBG survey suggests that “UK economists are sceptical about the ability of Keir Starmer’s Labour government to turbo-charge growth, anticipating the slow expansion that blighted much of the past decade will continue.”
- Focus remains on tomorrow’s UK CPI data and Thursday’s labour market report. Our preview of those data releases will cross later today.
- The King’s Speech is also due on Wednesday, we provided greater colour on that event in our Gilt Week Ahead.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.089 | -11.1 |
| Sep-24 | 4.989 | -21.1 |
| Nov-24 | 4.811 | -38.9 |
| Dec-24 | 4.695 | -50.5 |
| Feb-25 | 4.540 | -66.0 |
| Mar-25 | 4.431 | -76.9 |
| May-25 | 4.292 | -90.8 |
| Jun-25 | 4.193 | -100.7 |
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