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Modest SONIA Reaction As Budget Budget Generally Meets Expectations

STIR

The lack of meaningful fiscal surprises in the Budget allows BoE-dated OIS to print at the most dovish levels of the session, albeit remaining within the range seen in recent days.

  • The strip briefly shows 65bp of cuts through ’24, before pulling back to ~63.5bp. ~24bp of cuts are priced through the June ’24 MPC.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.200+1.1
May-245.172-1.6
Jun-245.089-10.0
Aug-244.952-23.7
Sep-244.837-35.2
Nov-244.678-51.1
Dec-244.556-63.3
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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