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Modestly Bear Steeper, 10Y Supply And Fedspeak In Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade 0.5-2bp cheaper, modestly bear steepening with 2s10s at -29bps, with Tsys lifting off overnight best levels that had continued after further NYCB pressures and a well-received 3Y Tsy auction. The cheapening pressure broadly mirrors that seen in EGBs/Gilts.
  • TYH4 has pulled back to 111-04 (-05) from yesterday’s high of 111-12+, on lower volumes of 290k compared to prior elevated overnight sessions. It sits close to resistance at 111-20 (20-day EMA) but a bearish threat is still present with focus on the bear trigger at 110-22+ (Feb 5 low).
  • Today sees a lighter data docket with focus instead on Fedspeak and 10Y supply. Fedspeak, at least from those that haven’t spoke for a while, could be on the dovish side of the FOMC spectrum – see STIR bullet.
  • Data: MBA mortgage data (0700ET), Trade bal Dec (0830ET), Consumer credit Dec (1500ET)
  • Fedspeak: Kugler (1100ET, incl text), Collins (1130ET, incl text), Barkin (1230ET), Bowman (1400ET, incl text), NY Fed SOMA Dep SOMA Manager Remache (1515ET), NY Fed’s Nordstrom (1630ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction - 91282CJZ5 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)
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