Modi's National Democratic Alliance Appears Set For Enhanced Majority

The results of India’s six-week long federal election will be announced Tuesday, June 4. Data from exit polls suggests that the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by PM Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will match or improve on the 353 seats it won in 2019.

• Results will be announced at 08:00 local 03:30 BST 22:30 ET. Bloomberg election tracker.
• Goldman notes: “All exit polls show the incumbent BJP-led NDA alliance to be in a comfortable lead, with the average number of seats projected around 360+ within a range of 281 - 415. This is above the 272 seats (out of a total of 543) required for a majority.”
• Markets will likely interpret a strong NDA performance as indicative of continuity in policy and ongoing reforms, contributing to a stable macro-economic environment.
• With an enhanced mandate, a new Modi government is expected to accelerate structural land reforms which collapsed in 2021 under resistance from agricultural groups.
• The Economic Times notes: “A Modi 3.0 government with strong majority might bring this land reform back since it is in an overdrive to promote India as a manufacturing hub and smooth and swift acquisition of land is key to setting up of factories.”
• Modi will also continue development of road and rail infrastructure, labour-intensive manufacturing, and high value-add sectors for services exports.
• Reuters notes that Modi will continue work on the Dholera Special Investment Region (DSIR) in Gujarat as part of a, “pledge to transform India into a global manufacturing hub,” through, “subsidies for domestic production modelled on recent packages for semiconductor firms and electric vehicle makers.”