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Momentum on HUF Remain Firm

HUNGARY
  • This morning, economic data showed that Hungary posted a 81mil Euros trade surplus in November following four consecutive months of deficits.
  • CEE currencies have been consolidating strong in recent weeks following the strong depreciation in Q4 2021; HUF was the best performing currency of the region, up 2.7% against the USD and 2.9% against the Euro.
  • Part of the HUF strength was driven by the upside revision in central banks’ terminal rate as policymakers are now expected to prolong their tightening cycle to combat inflationary pressures.
  • The 1W depo rate (effective rate) could reach up to 4.5% in early 2022, with ‘core’ policy rate expected to slowly converge towards 1W depo rate through H1 2022.
  • Next important data to watch will be December inflation, coming out on January 14 and expected to decelerate to 7.2% (from 7.4% the previous month).
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