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Monetary Council Keeps Inflation Target, Introduces Continuous Target

BRAZIL
  • One of the key risk factors for the potential commencement of monetary easing in Brazil appears to have been removed following yesterday’s decision by the National Monetary Council to maintain the inflation target at 3%. Despite several calls in recent months for a less strict goal, the CMN decided to keep pursuing the current target, whilst also deciding to remove specific objectives for each calendar year and introduce a continuous medium-term goal which will start in 2025.
  • Analysts have noted that the unanimous decision should further shore up confidence regarding economic policy and likely bolster the downward momentum for inflation expectations. With the risk event out of the way and markets likely to remain stable, conditions for a first Selic rate cut in August look likely to be met.
  • Finance Minister Fernando Haddad took the opportunity to say that the decision on the inflation goal was unanimous and “may change pace in interest rate cuts”.
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