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Month-End Models point to USD buying - but of varying strength

FOREX
  • Barclays: "The passive rebalancing model at month-end points to strong USD buying against all majors... A challenging macro outlook weighed on equity markets globally, with losses led by the US. The fall in US markets dominates, given the large market cap, and induces the model to produce strong USD buying signals."
  • Citi: "The preliminary estimate of month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows points to moderate USD buying vs all major currencies. The signal strength is broadly in line with the historical norm... Citi’s real money FX flow indicator shows that we haven’t seen notable selling of major currencies in the past week, pointing to little intra-month rebalancing flows this month."
  • MS: "USD should strengthen versus most currencies in the G10, except against GBP, JPY, and NOK this month-end...The FX month-end strategy's performance has been trending lower after a strong run earlier in the year. Last month, the strategy posted negative returns for the first time since October 2021.
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