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Month-end, NFP Position Adjustments, Provide Direction

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Month-end dynamics, along with position adjustments ahead of Friday's key US NFP release, acted to keep the USD buoyed through Tuesday's session.
  • EUR/USD extended its corrective pullback from Friday's high of $1.1975, finding support at $1.1878, the 76.4% retrace level of the recent move up from $1.1848(Jun18-21 lows).
  • Rate recovered to $1.1912 through the 1600BST fix before it settled around $1.1900 into the close.
  • Consolidation continued in Asia, trade restricted to a range of $1.1897-1.1909.
  • France Consumer Spending and Inflation data at 0645GMT, Germany Unemployment 0755GMT, with flash EZ CPI at 0900GMT (median 0.2%mm, 1.9%yy; Core 0.9%yy).
  • US Home Sales 1400GMT. Fed Barkin 1700GMT.
  • Month-end and models predict weak USD sales, though this could be countered by NFP positioning, which has been favouring USD demand (strength of NFP to provide indications for US taper timetable).
  • Support $1.1878, $1.1848/37(Jun18 low, Jun21 low/76.4% 1.1704-1.2266). Resistance $1.1909/19(Asia high/NY high), $1.1930(Jun29 high) ahead of $1.1945/50.
  • MNI Techs: Outlook remains bearish. This follows sharp losses between Jun 15 - 18. Price cleared the 50-day EMA and a former support at 1.2104, Jun 4 low, highlighting a bearish tone and confirming a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
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