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Monthly GDP Preview, Mar 31 0830ET

  • Monthly GDP lands on Friday at 0830ET, with consensus for a 0.4% M/M increase vs the 0.3% from last month’s advance information.
  • CIBC look for an above consensus 0.6% M/M after “a big jump in employment, a surge in manufacturing shipments and solid gains in retail and wholesale spending” although early indications for February suggest a “modest giveback” in the advance.
  • The Q4 data provided a recent reminder of the differences in the monthly and the ultimately focused-on quarterly data, rising 1.0% annualized in Q4 vs 0.0%.
  • Growth undershot the BoC’s forecast of 1.3% for Q4 from its January MPR, but equally could be on track to overshoot the 0.5% pencilled in for Q1 and due for an update with the fresh MPR in a couple weeks.

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