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Monthly Inflation Watch: CPI Sticky Amid Recession Fears

CANADA
  • BOC's Sept rate decision said focus would be on: evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth, corporate pricing power.
  • Since then, excess demand has come down; the last reading of GDP was flat, although clouded by industry disruptions. A third of businesses and over half of consumers expect a recession.
  • Inflation expectations remain elevated; the Q3 business survey revealed a third of firms expect it to take longer than three years to reach the inflation target.
  • Firms are revising down their hiring plans, but wage growth remains high. Sept jobs report +5% wage gains and July payroll average weekly earnings +4.3%.
  • Corporate pricing power still abnormal, 23% of firms plan to make larger than normal price increases.
  • Oil prices down compared to Sept but remain tight from OPEC cuts with further risk of high prices from Israel/Gaza conflict.
  • Broad-based slowdown in last CPI report as both headline and core eased. Inflation still far above the bank’s target rate at 3.8% YOY.
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