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Monthly Retail Sales Volatile, Momentum Positive But Soft

AUD

Retail sales rose a stronger than expected 0.5% m/m in July, which was also above most forecasts, as partial payback for the 0.8% drop in June. The monthly changes are volatile but 3-month momentum remains positive but softer than it has been and while retail sales continue to grow compared to a year ago that pace has slowed substantially from the post-Covid spending spree period. Nominal sales have been fairly steady since late 2022 up only 0.4% since October despite higher prices.

  • Annual growth in retail sales moderated further in July to 2.1% y/y from 2.3%, the lowest since August 2021. 2019 averaged 2.7% growth. July CPI is published on Wednesday and is expected to rise 5.2% y/y.
  • There was a July bounce in non-food retailing after the weak June readings. Department store sales rose 3.6% m/m to be flat on the year and clothing & footwear +2% m/m -0.4% y/y but household goods fell 0.2% m/m to be down 4.1% y/y. Restaurant sales remain robust rising 1.3% m/m to be up 9% y/y boosted by school holidays and the Women’s World Cup.
Australia retail sales A$mn

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

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