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More Muted Friday After Volatile Week

FOREX
  • Currency markets were more muted Friday, consolidating after several sessions of acute volatility - mainly led by JPY crosses. Both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY this week printed fresh cycle and multi-year highs, sending upside targets north and prompting mild verbal intervention from Japanese ministers. Both currencies showed technical signs of being overbought, prompting a session of consolidation Friday in which the JPY regained a very small part of the recent lost ground.
  • NOK was the strongest performer Friday, benefiting from both a higher oil price as well as the Norges Bank decision on Thursday, which showed a far sharper, steeper rate path projection relative to the past forecast round in December. USD/NOK and EUR/NOK hold close to recent YTD lows.
  • The oil saw support into the Friday close, as an attack on a Saudi Aramco facility in Jeddah erased any downside pressure that followed reports that the US are considering another wave of oil reserve releases as gas prices remain sticky.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to the latest US jobs release, with markets expecting job gains of 480k and another downtick in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Personal income/spending data is also due, while markets will also contend with month-end flows.
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