More Selling, 30s Briefly Print At 5%

Tsys continue the recent cheapening move as participants discuss chances of a soft economic landing, debate the higher for longer rates story and reassess term premium, at a time that sees long end Tsy yields in a bit of a technical no man’s land with bears in control.

• That leaves the major cash benchmarks running 1-6bp cheaper on the day, steepening.
• 30s hit 5% for the first time since ’07 before easing away from the level.
• 2s10s moves to -31bp, ~5bp off YtD highs.
• 5s30s moves to +13bp, a little off yesterday’s multi month steeps.
• TYZ3 last -0-11 at 106-09+, off session lows, with technical support bunched at the round number (126-00) and the 3.0% lower Bollinger Band (105-29+).
• Asia-Pac flow saw a block FV/US steepener, in what was probably an unwind of some of the flattener positions put on last week.
• There also appeared to be a rolling and upsizing of existing TY downside positioning via the TYX3 106.50/105.25 1x2 put spread and some looking for upside exposure via the TYX3 106.75 calls.
• FOMC-dated OIS still sees a terminal policy rate of a little over 5.45% (come December), with 50bp of cuts then showing through September ’24.
• The packed NY data docket is headlined by ADP employment and the ISM services data, while Fedspeak will come from Bowman and Goolsbee.