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Morning Summary: April CPI Inflation Expected To Rise To 2.8%

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually decrease with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping below 1,600 (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). As a result, Czech government continues to ease pandemic restrictions, reopening shops and services after 4 months of lockdown.
  • As expected, the CNB decided to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.25% as policymakers aim to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible. Debates over rate hikes will likely start in August, implying that the CNB will be one the first central banks to start raising rates in 2021 in Western/Central/Eastern Europe (Norway on the list in DM).
  • CNB Governor Rusnok mentioned in a conference last week that the central bank sees 'new inflation pressures', but still no urgency to sharply increase Czech rates. Rusnok also mentioned that CNB is 'fully 'confident' of at least one rate hike this year.
  • On Friday, we saw that economic data showed that Czech industrial production rose 18.2% YoY in March (vs. 12.1% exp.), mostly driven by the low base effect.
  • Next important economic data to watch is April CPI coming out on May 11 and expected to increase to 2.8% (from 2.3% the previous month).
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