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Morning Summary: April CPI Inflation Expected To Surge To 4.8%

HUNGARY
  • Covid daily new cases continue to decrease with the 7D SMA falling to 1,500 (lowest level since Feb 15), down from 9,300 (March 26 high) and from 2,100 the previous week. The number of people who received at least one dose of the Covid vaccines is approaching 4.2 million (over 40% of the population) this week, which has led to a gradual reopening of the economy.
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that March retail sales came in 'higher' than expected at -2% YoY (vs. -5.3% exp.) and up from -5.9% the previous month. In addition, industrial production jumped to 16.2% in March (vs. 15.2% exp.), mostly due to the low base effect.
  • As expected, the NBH decided to keep its 1W deposit rate steady at 0.75% at its weekly meeting on Thursday ahead of CPI inflation print coming out next week.
  • Inflationary pressures are expected to continue to rise in the short term mainly driven by the low base effect, with April CPI inflation expected to soar to 4.8% on May 11.
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